Saturday, September 24, 2005


NFL Week 3 Picks

Last week, I went 1-4; only a late flurry in Green Bay kept me from getting skunked. My overall record stands at 3-7. This means that through two weeks, I have been approximately as effective as throwing darts at the schedule. I keep telling myself it's early, and I can make it up. So here are this week's darts:

Indianapolis -13.5 vs Cleveland: Remember last week when I told you to take the Colts and lay the points, except against New England? Well, I want to amend that to include Jacksonville. Cleveland's defense is not as good as either as those two. Neither are they anywhere near as good as the Packers made them look last week. I also like the under 47 total. I'm thinking 33-7 here.

New Orleans +4 at Minnesota: The Vikings look like a black hole. They have engulfed St. Paul, and Eden Prairie and Lake Minnetonka are on the event horizon. The Saints are pissed at the NFL for somehow adding a road game to what was already an all-road schedule last week.

New York Giants +6 at San Diego: Everyone seems to think that Giants QB Eli Manning will get booed out of the stadium, and off his game, by Chargers fans. WHAT fans? The ones who were outnumbered by Cowboys fans at their home opener? Prove it. The Giants look pretty decent to me. I think the desperate Chargers will win, but barely.

Kansas City +3 at Denver: The better team is getting points. I don't care if they're on the road; they're better.

Saturday, September 17, 2005


NFL Week 2 Picks

First, a quick recap of Week 1: I stunk, going 2-3. Losses will happen, but when you take the over on Green Bay/Detroit and it winds up being the second-lowest scoring game of the week...well, that hurts. I told you it would be difficult early. Now, we have to figure out what was real and what was a mirage about Week 1.

Green Bay -6.5 vs Cleveland: Losing Javon Walker hurts, undoubtedly. But is there a quarterback would responds to adversity better than Brett Favre? Anybody remember how he destroyed the Raiders the day after his father died? In fact, take the over 40.5 total, too, because the Pack is probably good for 30+ by themselves. Factoid of the week: Cleveland hasn't won in Green Bay for 49 years. If that isn't a trend, I don't know what qualifies.

Indianapolis -9 vs Jacksonville: I'm drinking the Colts Kool-Aid. Take them and lay the wood, unless they're playing the Patriots, of course. The Jags are not as good as they looked last week.

Buffalo +2 at Tampa Bay: The Bills are for real. They shouldn't be getting points against non-elite teams. The Bucs are, um, not elite.

Miami +6 at NY Jets: I'll take the points in a low-scoring game again this week. I think Dolphins coach Nick Saban has performed an attitude transplant in one offseason.

Saturday, September 10, 2005


NFL Week 1 Picks

NOTE: For entertainment purposes only. The author has no desire to contribute to anyone else's degeneracy. If you place bets based on what you read in a blog, you need help. Caveat emptor.

I had a marginally successful season last year, making picks and emailing them to my father. That gave me the confidence (arrogance?) to publish them here this season. I will make five picks most weeks, sometimes more, sometimes less. Some will be against the pointspread, some will be on the totals. All numbers (the spreads and totals, to the uninitiated) will come from the Stardust casino's webpage at the time I make the picks. And one other piece of business: I don't think anyone should try to outguess the oddsmakers the first four weeks of the season, because I don't think anyone knows enough about the NFL in the first month. Nevertheless, I will take the plunge, hoping I don't dig myself a hole so deep I can't climb out.

Cincinnati -3.5 at Cleveland: The Bengals are a team on the rise. The Browns, at this point, are not. I will go against the old saw that states home underdogs are golden. It doesn't work when the underdog is, truly, a dog. In the same vein...

St. Louis -6 at San Francisco: This spread has increased this week. That makes me nervous, until I remember how much the Niners stink. The only way the Rams don't cover is if they fall asleep at the switch in the fourth quarter.

San Diego -4.5 vs Dallas: The Cowboys will be pretty decent...later in the season. LaDainian Tomlinson is great, right now. The Chargers suspended their excellent young tight end, Antonio Gates, apparently to show everyone who won their off-season pissing match. It won't matter Sunday.

Chicago +6 at Washington: Now here's an old theory I will use--in a low-scoring game, take the points. This is very likely to be the lowest-scoring game of the week, with two solid defenses going against two conservative (and inept) offenses. This game has 13-10 written all over it. For the final pick, let's go to the other end of the spectrum.

Green Bay at Detroit over 45.5 points: Both teams feature offenses filled with high-flying playmakers. Both defenses have shown little grasp of the concept of tackling in the preseason. This one looks to be a track meet.

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