Saturday, November 26, 2005


NFL Week 12 Picks

I went 3-3 last week, and 2-0 on Thanksgiving, making me 28-32-2 for the season. I just need one big week to reach respectability. Here's hoping it's this week.

Carolina -4 at Buffalo: Last week's loss to the Bears may have spooked some people about the Panthers. Not me. They are slightly better than the Bills on defense, and much, much better on offense. They should cruise in this one.

Jacksonville -3.5 at Arizona: Why isn't this spread higher? Is it the vaunted home-field advantage possessed by the Cardinals? Don't make me laugh. The Jaguars by a lot.

Cleveland +4 at Minnesota: The Vikings have won a couple in a row, which makes them due for a clunker. They might win, but Cleveland is getting better, and should make it close.

Green Bay +4.5 at Philadelphia: Every game the Packers lose makes them a more attractive underdog the next week, as the masses of degenerate gamblers stay away from them. What most people haven't noticed is that they have covered in most of those losses.

Oakland vs. Miami under 42 points: Miami's offense is afflicted with Bad Quarterback Play, a disease which seriously limits their ability to score. The Raiders have firepower, but I believe they will emphasize the run this week, which will keep the score down.

San Diego -3 at Washington: It looks like the wheels are starting to come loose on the Redskins' bandwagon. The Chargers, on the other hand, are starting to get scary on offense, which is covering their defensive inadequacies. But because of their defense, let's take the over 44 points total too.

St. Louis at Houston over 45 points: Both of these defenses are, um, not good. The Rams' offensive weaponry is well established. The Texans have some playmakers as well, in Domanick Davis and Andre Johnson. This number just looks low.

Thursday, November 24, 2005


NFL Thanksgiving Picks

A quick bonus for the holiday. More picks will appear on Saturday as usual.

Atlanta -3 at Detroit: Although I like home underdogs, that goes right out the window when the other teams runs the ball better. Therefore....

Denver -2.5 at Dallas: The second-best team in the junior-varsity conference hosts the second-best team in the varsity conference. Advantage, varsity.

Saturday, November 19, 2005


NFL Week 11 Picks

Another ugly 2-4 week makes me 23-29-2 for the year. Forget about picking games; I'm starting to question whether I should be taking up valuable oxygen from the other six billion souls on this planet. Plans to move to Vegas have been put on hold, but I will go ahead and make some more picks.

Tampa Bay +6 at Atlanta: The Bucs have owned this series in recent memory. Why are they getting so many points? Is it because their defense looked so shaky last week? Well, let me tell you something--the Falcons' defense hasn't been a world-beater lately either. Tampa probably wins this game outright.

Cincinnati +6 vs. Indianapolis: I think this is the week the Colts' perfect season gets derailed. A dome team, playing outside in some pretty bad weather, against a 7-2 squad coming off a bye; if I didn't tell you it was Indy, you would never take the road team in that situation. The Bengals could still lose this game, but not by a lot.

New York Giants -7 vs. Philadelphia: I have to decide whether the Giants' loss last week was an aberration or a trend. Let's see...they gave up an interception return for a touchdown, a punt return for a touchdown, and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Since that has NEVER HAPPENED IN NFL HISTORY...I vote for aberration. The Eagles, on the other hand, have been publicly imploding for weeks. Take the Giants and lay the wood.

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Baltimore: The Ravens are dreadful, and I cannot imagine why this line is so low. It must be that people are spooked by the notion of Tommy Maddox at quarterback. The fact is, they could put Tommy Hilfiger back there and still stomp Baltimore flat. The Steelers might score enough points on defense to win this game.

San Diego vs. Buffalo over 42 points: The Charger offense is ruthlessly efficient, and will probably get over 30 by themselves. The Bills are probably good for 13, although it may take a garbage-time touchdown to get there.

Green Bay -4.5 vs. Minnesota: Both teams come off road wins against better teams. The Vikes' win over the Giants was, as noted above, a fluke. They won't do it two weeks in a row. The cheeseheads, well fortified against a night colder than a pimp's heart, will cheer themselves hoarse on the way to a big victory.

Saturday, November 12, 2005


NFL Week 10 Picks

I went 3-2-1 last week, making me 21-25-2 for the season. I am closing in on .500, but not fast enough. I need a big week. Here's six more picks, in no particular order.

Green Bay +9.5 at Atlanta: The Pack is starting to exhibit a real pattern. They play very competitively for most of the game, but fail to make the plays down the stretch needed to win. This is tough news if you're a Packer fan, but it's golden if you're a degenerate gambler. I am on the Packers every game they get seven or more points, the rest of the year.

Kansas City +2.5 at Buffalo: It is true that the Chiefs are better at home, but it's not a huge difference. The Bills are mediocre in Buffalo, Kansas City or Zimbabwe. Take the better team and the points.

Chicago -13.5 vs. San Francisco: The Niners have had some respectable performances at home. They are not at home on Sunday. Even without their starting tailback, the Bears should grind out the yards and points.

Indianapolis -17.5 vs. Houston: Probably the largest spread of the year. Don't worry about it. The best team in the league is playing the worst; there's supposed to be a big spread. If Texans RB Domanick Davis (game-time decision) doesn't play, this could get uglier than Scooter Libby's job search.

New York Giants -9.5 vs. Minnesota: I admit to being a little spooked by how well the Giants have played, and have been waiting for them to come back to earth. But their offense is just too good, and the Vikings defense is just too bad.

Seattle -7 vs. St. Louis: The Seahawks are very good indeed at home. The Rams are pretty bad indeed on the road. Although the Rams have been running the ball more since mad-scientist Coach Mike Martz stepped aside, they will fall behind early in this one and be forced to abandon the run. On a rainy day in Seattle. Next stop, Turnover City.

Saturday, November 05, 2005


NFL Week 9 Picks

I went 2-3 last week, which could have easily been 4-1 if the Redskins had even shown up and the Chargers or Chiefs could have found another TD laying around somewhere...aaauuuuuggghh. Now 18-23-1, a faint whiff of desperation is in the air. With an unheard-of nine home underdogs this week, I am ignoring them all, because most of them are terrible. Here is this week's six-pack, with fingers crossed.

Carolina -1.5 at Tampa Bay: Wideout Steve Smith is pound-for-pound the best player in the league. On a team that prefers to run the ball, he is leading the league in catches, yards and touchdowns, routinely abusing double-teams on almost every snap. Tampa's zone defense will fare no better.

Chicago -3 at New Orleans: This game might be close...for a while. Ultimately, the Saints will be unable to play the mistake-free game they need to win against the resurgent Bears defense.

Jacksonville -13.5 vs Houston: Congratulations to the Texans, who finally got their first win of the season last week. The Jaguars await to welcome them back to harsh reality. Namely, that they are very bad.

New York Giants -11 at San Francisco: Giants QB Eli Manning has yet to win a road game. Here's your chance, boy. The Niners are not the kind of team that has two consecutive good efforts in them, and are on their fourth quarterback of the season.

Seattle -4 at Arizona: "Touchdown, Shaun Alexander." Cardinals fans should get used to the sound of that, as they are going to hear it a lot on Sunday. Few players have a nose for the end zone like the Seahawks' workhorse. Arizona's defense will appear to be reenacting the French army during the first two months of WWII.

Washington vs Philadelphia over 40 total: The Redskins and the Eagles will both play better on offense than they did last week. I don't know who will win this game, but I'm pretty sure they'll both get past 20 points.

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