Sunday, October 28, 2007


NFL Week Eight Picks

Picking winners is getting tougher, as expected. A 2-3 result last week lowers my record to 20-15; a respectable, though not gaudy, 57% for the season. I am passing on the Patriots this week, as this game is giving me a Halloween-sized case of the creeps. Here's my spooky picks:

Detroit +5 at Chicago: Call it a hunch, but my suspicion is that the Bears will clobber the Lions early, then allow a cover on the back door.

Cleveland -3 at St. Louis: The Browns favored on the road? Yes, the Rams really are that bad.

New York Giants -9.5 at Miami: This game is being played in London. I would take the Giants if the game was on Mars.

Buffalo +3 at New York Jets: The wrong team is favored here. Sometimes, it really is that simple.

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Cincinnati: The Steelers take special delight in abusing the Bengals. No one knows why. Just roll with it.

Sunday, October 21, 2007


NFL Week Seven Picks

My picks bounced back last week, going 4-2. Now at 18-12 (60%) for the season, I am brimming with confidence--usually a sign that things are about to take a nasty turn. Nevertheless, I will throw five more picks into the breach.

Tampa Bay +2.5 at Detroit: I think the wrong team is favored here. The Bucs have better balance, a much better defense, and don't turn the ball over. I think the degenerates know that Tampa has not played well indoors lately, but that is the kind of false trend that makes most bettors into losers long-term. The 'trend' is not nearly is important as one team being better than the other.

New England -16 at Miami: I will continue to ride the Patriots until they don't cover. The entire professional sports betting community is on the Dolphins, big. I understand why, because there is usually a lot of value (read: more points) on winless teams. It is not a deterrence, because the 'Fins are truly awful.

Kansas City +2.5 at Oakland: Another wrong-team-favored situation. Earlier this year, I wrote that the Chiefs were a Larry Johnson injury away from being the worst team in the league. Well, things move pretty fast around here--NFL stands for Not For Long. The Chiefs are half-decent now, and Priest Holmes has returned to back up LJ. The Raiders, on the other hand, are still a smoking hole where a once-proud franchise once stood.

Chicago at Philadelphia over 41.5 points: The Bears' defense is not what it once was, and the Eagles are erratic in this area as well. I think both teams get into the twenties, making the over the play.

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Denver: These two teams are in different weight classes. The Broncos' home-field advantage is in the past after getting crushed at home two weeks ago, and a bye week is not going to help enough to make a difference. It's the Steelers, early and often.

Sunday, October 14, 2007


NFL Week Six Picks

Well, a losing week had to happen sooner or later. I assure you it will happen again. My picks went 2-3 last week, dropping my season record to 14-10. We'll try to get back on the horse this week.

Arizona -4.5 vs. Carolina: This is a late addition, and we will see whether this implusive move is warranted. Panthers starting QB David Carr is a) not very good, and b) has a bad back. It stiffened up on the flight, and he has been downgraded to questionable. Their other options are an undrafted rookie and the 206-year-old Vinnie Testaverde, signed this week. The line has not moved, so I'm exploiting it.

Minnesota +5 at Chicago: I don't really think the Vikings are going to win, but I have to take the points in a game I think will feature paltry scoring. In fact, I'll take the under 37 points total, as well.

Kansas City +3 vs. Cincinnati: The Chiefs have always enjoyed a strong home-field advantage, especially against teams with high-flying offenses like the Bengals. Cincy will have to play well to win this game, and they have laid a bunch of eggs this year.

New England -5.5 at Dallas: An undefeated team is is the biggest home underdog on the board this week. As strange as that is, I am riding the Pats until they don't cover. I don't think it will be this week.

Philadelphia -3.5 at New York Jets: Since the bye week was introduced, the Eagles are undefeated in the next week. When combined with the Jets' overall suckiness, this looks like a big win.

Sunday, October 07, 2007


NFL Week Five Picks

My picks went 3-2 last week, bringing my season record to 12-7. It's not a bad thing if a 3-2 week lowers your win percentage. I am tempting fate once again, picking four favorites and one over, but I can't get away from them.

Arizona -3.5 at St. Louis: These two teams are going in different directions. I think I'll take the one on the upward trend. The Cardinals' goofy two-quarterback system appears to be working, and has not torn the locker room apart--yet.

Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago: Maximum effort can be expected from the Bears, with their season in the balance. Their injury-riddled defense will tire late in the game, allowing the Packers to pull away.

New England -16.5 vs. Cleveland: True, it's an enormous number. I don't care. Right now, the Patriots would be favored over the 82nd Airborne Division, and I would still take them.

New York Jets at New York Giants over 40.5 points: I can't convince myself of a side here, but I am convinced that this total is about six points too low.

Dallas -10 at Buffalo: This is a classic "trap" game for the Cowboys. Playing an out-of-conference opponent on the road; an underdog playing at home on Monday night for the first time in 13 years; Dallas looking ahead to the Patriots next week.... Sorry. For a second there, I forgot the Cowboys are much, much better. They will pull away in the second half, like they have all year.

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