Friday, September 26, 2008


NFL Week Four Picks

Another 4-1 week brings my season record to 11-4, a sterling 73% clip. I think it is more likely that Sarah Palin will be tapped to lead Planned Parenthood than it is for me to continue my current pace. I will attempt to continue riding this hot streak.

Buffalo -8 at St. Louis: I'm also going to ride the Bills as far as they will take me. The Rams' implosion, incredibly, is accelerating, with the coach benching the quarterback and the stud running back calling the coach out in the media for the decision. If this one gets ugly, Rams Coach Scott Linehan will be fired on Monday.

Denver at Kansas City over 46.5 points total: I was somewhat leery of taking Denver to cover the nine-point spread, because the Chiefs have gone back to Damon Huard at QB (he's mediocre, which means he's by far their best option) and they have to play better sometime...don't they? I believe he can probably get more points out of his offense. Not enough to win, but enough to scare, which makes Denver -9 a bad play and makes the over an even better play.

San Diego at Oakland over 46 points total: There is a similar dynamic at play here; this might be a blowout, but it might not, so the over is the more rational play. The Chargers are favored by 7.5 points. If this one ends, say, 28-23, you could lose on the Bolts, but the over would still be good.

Tennessee -3 vs. Minnesota: These teams are very similar, with rugged defenses, strong running games, and caretakers at quarterback. The hamstring problems of Vikings RB Adrian Peterson makes the Titans just a little better on all three of those units, and they are at home against a dome team. It all adds up to more than a field goal to me.

Baltimore +7 at Pittsburgh: Like Buffalo, the Ravens are a team to ride until the oddsmakers catch up with them. It doesn't seem like they could keep up with the Steelers on the road on Monday night, but Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is hurt a lot more than the team is letting on. This will be a brutal, low-scoring game where you want the points.

Saturday, September 20, 2008


NFL Week Three Picks

My picks were 3-2 last week, making my season record 7-3. If I thought I could continue that pace, I would have moved to Vegas long ago, and I would not be sharing my insight on the Internet for free. Fortunately, we all know better than that; on to this week's selections.

Baltimore -2.5 vs. Cleveland: It is possible that the Browns are better than they have looked. It does not matter, though, as the Ravens are consistently undervalued. This could be a laugher if, in fact, the Browns are as awful as they have looked.

Denver vs. New Orleans over 51 points: Am I crazy? It a bad long-term trend to take the over on such high totals. However, I am looking at two L-O-A-D-E-D offenses and two D-U-B-I-O-U-S defenses. We might get to 51 at halftime.

Dallas at Green Bay under 51 points: OK, I think I just talked myself off the ledge. I was this close to taking the over on this one as well. Then I remembered that these teams' defenses, while not perfect, do have guys who can cover, tackle and rush the passer.

Tennessee -4.5 vs. Houston: The Titans are a playoff team if they get middle-of-the-pack play from the quarterback position. The Texans, well, let's be diplomatic and say they don't resemble a playoff team right now. So, can anyone tell me why Tennessee won't win this game at home by ten points or so? Anyone? Bueller?...Bueller?

New York Jets +9 at San Diego: Make no mistake, the Chargers are desperate to avoid an 0-3 start. They also have more talent than the Jets, even with their injuries. I believe pretty strongly they will win this game. I just think they will struggle more than this line indicates.

Saturday, September 13, 2008


NFL Week 2 Picks

I opened with a strong 4-1 performance in the first week. Now we must determine which lines are overreactions to Week One, while avoiding the same mistakes ourselves. It's harder than it sounds....

Tennessee +1.5 at Cincinnati: Losing Vince Young really doesn't hurt the Titans that much. Being the Bengals does hurt, however. The wrong team is favored here, so I am happy to take the better team and the points, even on the road.

Buffalo +5.5 at Jacksonville: This line would have been ludicrous last year. This is not last year. The Bills are for real, and the Jags are decimated by injury. They'll be better down the road, and they might even figure out a way to win this game, but not by much.

New York Jets vs. New England over 37 points total: I know that Pats QB Matt Cassell is starting his first game since high school. I also know that he isn't on an NFL roster because he's a nice guy. I don't know who will win this game, but I only need a 21-17 score to win, and that sounds very reasonable to me.

New Orleans (even) at Washington: The Saints looked pretty good last week, so this must be a reaction to the injury to Saints stud WR Marques Colston. I think that's a mistake; Head Coach Sean Payton has possibly the most fertile imagination in the game, he added TE Jeremy Shockey in the offseason, and oh yeah, Reggie Bush catches well. I am fading the Skins until they show me something.

Philadelphia +7 at Dallas: The spread is inflated by the love the Cowboys get nationwide. The Cowboys are loaded, it's true. But the Eagles don't stink; in my mind, they are almost a 50-50 proposition to win this game outright. So I will take the points, and my chances.

Sunday, September 07, 2008


NFL Week One Picks, Continued

Well, we're off to a nice start with the Giants. Let's see if I can keep it going.

Arizona at San Francisco over 42 points total: This could be the most entertaining game of the weekend that no one will see. The Niners have to be improved with new mad scientist/offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The Cardinals, for their part, are downright dangerous as long as they can keep 206-year-old QB Kurt Warner upright and lucid. I am bucking a trend here; defenses are normally ahead of offenses early in the season, and there are degenerates out there who will bet the under on every game this week and take their chances.

Buffalo -1 vs. Seattle: The Seahawks have never been great in the Eastern Time Zone. Their receiving corps is already battered by injuries, and their QB has a bulging disc in his back that required a steroid shot to get him ready for the opener. The Bills are a young, fast team on the rise with a historically strong home-field advantage.

New Orleans -3 vs. Tampa Bay: The Saints have quietly shrugged off their struggles of last season, and look to be the scary 2006 version again. The Bucs are another year older, and slower.

Carolina +9 at San Diego: The Chargers are loaded, but have injury concerns to many of their All-Stars. I don't think they are ready to cover a big spread against an underrated Panthers team that paradoxically plays better on the road.

Thursday, September 04, 2008


NFL Pick Week One

There will be more later. Gotta get in under the wire for tonight.

New York Giants -4 vs. Washington: The Skins have looked terrible in preseason. The starters, I mean. The Giants feel disrespected, as everyone has told them how lucky they were to win the Super Bowl, and now they open their defense at home. The Redskins will be lucky to keep it within ten points.

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