Thursday, October 28, 2010


NFL Week Eight Picks

A revolting 1-4 week makes my record 20-24. No time for writeups this week. As bad as I've been, why would you read them anyway?

Dallas -6.5 vs. Jacksonville

Cincinnati -1.5 vs. Miami

Tampa Bay at Arizona under 39.5 points

Pittsburgh +2 at New Orleans

Indianapolis -5.5 vs. Houston

Saturday, October 23, 2010


NFL Week Seven Picks

My 4-4-1 result from last week makes me 19-20 for the season. Cutting back to a more normal five picks this week.

Pittsburgh -3 at Miami: It seems clear to me that the Steelers are the class of the league right now. They aren't unbeatable, and the Dolphins don't stink, but give me the better team on a roll.

Kansas City -9 vs. Jacksonville: This was available at 4.5 earlier this week, should have posted it then. No matter. The Jaguars will be starting a quarterback they signed off the street this week. Against the resurgent Chiefs, with one of the more potent home-field advantages in the league, they will be fortunate to score.

Buffalo at Baltimore under 40 points total: Buffalo is almost as good a candidate for a shutout as Jacksonville. I don't think the Ravens can get close to 40 by themselves.

San Diego -1.5 vs. New England: How can I pick the Chargers, a train wreck in shoulder pads, when just about everyone is picking the Patriots? Because the people who aren't picking the Pats are Las Vegas bookmakers. Since the line favors San Diego, I suspect the smart money is on them, and the general betting public is being led to the slaughter.

Dallas -3 vs. New York Giants: The Giants have been going well of late, and Dallas could not be any lower. However, nothing happens the way it is "supposed" to in this series. Also, see the above; they are favored for a reason. I think we all have to hold our collective noses and buy the Cowboys.

Saturday, October 16, 2010


NFL Week Six Picks

A second straight winning week of 4-3 now makes me 15-16 for the season. After getting away with a larger-than-normal seven picks last week, I am now emboldened. I have (gasp) nine that I like and I can't get away from any of them. This could end very badly...but here it goes.

Kansas City +5 at Houston: I think the Texans will win this game, but it will be hard work. If the Chiefs had decent quarterback play, they would be dangerous indeed.

New Orleans -4 at Tampa Bay: At some point, the defending champs have to rediscover their offensive mojo. I think this is the week. The defense is another matter entirely, though, so give me the over 43 points total as well.

Atlanta +3 at Philadelphia: The Falcons are pretty good; I'm not sure who they should be getting points against. Not the Eagles, anyway. Their defense is an illusion that will be exposed by a balanced offense like Atlanta's.

Detroit +10 at New York Giants: Quick, who's leading the NFC in scoring? I bet you didn't say the Lions, either. The Giants have played very well a few weeks in a row...which is about their limit. They will win, but they are laying too much to cover.

Chicago -5.5 vs. Seattle: It is very hard to trust this Bears team and their recently-concussed quarterback. Then again, they're playing a Seattle team that must cross the Rocky Mountains to reach the game site. That usually doesn't bode well for them. Because of my eminently justifiable concerns about both offenses, I also like the under 38 points total.

New York Jets at Denver over 41.5 points: No opinion on the Broncos getting three at home, but they are high-volume passers with a bad defense. I will strongly consider them for an over until further notice.

Indianapolis -3 at Washington: Of the teams I have already picked, the only one I trust to play at their talent level consistently is Atlanta, and they are getting points. The Colts, on the other hand, are the most reliable cover as a favorite of the last decade. It is likely to remain that way as long as Peyton Manning is healthy.

Saturday, October 09, 2010


NFL Week Five Picks

I finally pulled it together last week, going 4-1 to bring my season record to 11-13. A few more weeks like that and I'll be respectable. I am a little nervous about making seven picks this week, but I just can't back away from any of them.

Jacksonville at Buffalo over 41 points: This is not a statement about these teams' offensive prowess, but rather about their defensive fecklessness. Seriously, these guys can't stop anybody. And although there are no great offenses here, there is a smattering of skill-position players of note, all of whom will score.

St. Louis +3 at Detroit: The Rams border on respectability some weeks. They may not be able to win on the road against a desperate Lions team, but they should at least keep it close.

Atlanta -3 at Cleveland: The Falcons are pretty good, more than a field goal better than the Browns, no matter where they play. I'll be shocked if it is less than seven.

Green Bay -2.5 at Washington: In the middle of a string of road favorites here. This is a dangerous way to play, but the Packers are clearly the better team and should win by at least a field goal.

San Diego -6 at Oakland: Yet another road fave, but this is not a fair fight. As long as the Chargers don't make big mistakes, the Raiders are not in their weight class.

Tennessee +7 at Dallas: I think the Cowboys are getting things turned around, but all is not completely well in Jerry's World. I believe the Titans will make them work very hard for everything they get, so I will take the points.

Philadelphia +3.5 at San Francisco: The 49ers are beyond desperate at this point, but their QB play has cost them dearly. Since they are trotting the same QB out there this week, that's not likely to change. The Eagles have some QB issues of their own, but they are not as severe. I will take the points in what is likely to be a low-scoring game.

Saturday, October 02, 2010


NFL Week Four Picks

Pathetically, my 3-3 result from last week improves my record to 7-12. Good grief, even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. Here are five acorns for this week.

Tennessee -6.5 vs. Denver: Titans games are never artistic successes, but this sport is not judged and there are no style points. Denver is lousy on the road.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh under 35 points total: Talk about not pretty...unless your idea of beauty is enormous sociopaths running each other over. In that case, the adrenaline/testosterone cocktail in this game makes it very attractive indeed. A final of 10-9 or so is a real possibility.

St. Louis +2.5 vs. Seattle: The betting public has not caught up with the Rams yet. They aren't world-beaters, but they are much improved. The Seahawks travel poorly, like an un-refrigerated mackerel.

San Diego -8.5 vs Arizona: The Chargers bounce back from their sluggish start and lay a proper beat-down on the Cardinals, who are this year's object lesson on the importance of the quarterback. The retirement of Kurt Warner turned them from contender to afterthought in a heartbeat.

New England even-up at Miami: The Patriots are not the dominating team they used to be, but they will channel their past life often enough to win a Monday-night shootout.

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