Saturday, September 29, 2012


NFL Week Four Picks

I went 7-2 in Vegas last weekend.  The blog was 3-3, +2.4 units, making my season record 10-9, +6.8 units.  Back to the theoretical.

New England at Buffalo over 49 points

San Diego -1 at Kansas City

Seattle -2.5 at St. Louis

Washington +2.5 at Tampa Bay

New York Giants +2.5 at Philadelphia

I'm also making a four-team, six-point teaser. This pays 3/1 if it hits.

St. Louis +8.5
Green Bay -1.5 vs. New Orleans
Washington +8.5
New York Giants +8.5

Wednesday, September 19, 2012


NFL Week Three Picks

MUCH better. A clean sweep last week (6-0, +10.8 units) raised my record to 7-6, +4.4 units for the year.  I'm going back to the well with the six-point, two-team teaser strategy.  I'll take all six combinations of the following four games.

Chicago -1.5 vs. St. Louis

Dallas -1.5 vs. Tampa Bay

New Orleans -2.5 vs. Kansas City

Denver +8 vs. Houston

I'll be in Vegas this weekend, and if I can still get those numbers I will probably play them. For the purposes of this blog, though, only the above picks will count.

Sunday, September 16, 2012


NFL Week Two Picks

Well...that happened. Last week's picks went 1-6, -6.4 units.  We move on. This week I am sticking with basic teaser strategy. I'm taking all six two-team combinations of the following four games.

Indianapolis +8.5 vs. Minnesota

Carolina +8.5 vs. New Orleans

Baltimore +8.5 at Philadelphia

Miami +8.5 vs. Oakland

Saturday, September 08, 2012


NFL Week One Picks

Welcome to another season of dubious prognostication. Let's get to the picks!

Philadelphia -8.5 at Cleveland:  The prudent bettor should be reluctant to pick such a large favorite on the road.  But there is a gulf of talent between these teams, and the Eagles are motivated to avoid their usual slow starts.  The Browns struggle to put more than 17 points on the board, and the Eagles are probably good for 30.

Buffalo +3 at New York Jets:  The wrong team is favored here.  The Jets have a dysfunctional offense, and the Bills look to be better than they have been in years.  Take the points and don't look back.

New England -4.5 at Tennessee:  I don't feel great about this, because the home team with the better defense is getting points.  But one book in Vegas is offering a line a full point lower than his peers, and per my usual policy, I am taking advantage.

Detroit -7.5 vs. St. Louis:  I think Jeff Fisher will turn things around in St. Louis, but it won't happen Week One.  The Lions are eager to show that they can run with the big dogs.  I don't know that smashing the Rams will prove anything, but they will do it anyway.

Pittsburgh at Denver under 46 total points:  This play is sort of mechanical, in that Pittsburgh has installed a new offense (and has had injuries and holdouts), and Denver has installed a new offensive coordinator quarterback.  They may be fine later, but I expect a few hiccups early.

I'm also going to expand the use of teasers this year. For this week, I will have all three two-team, six-point combinations of the following plays:

PHI -2.5
NO -1.5
DET -1.5

Don't worry, I'll keep score.

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