Thursday, October 25, 2012


NFL Week Eight Picks

Another rough week.  My picks went 3-5, -1.7 units.  My season record now sits at 23-23, +5.3 units.  We continue to fire away.

Indianapolis at Tennessee over 46.5 points:  The Titans have turned into an over machine, due to the resurgence of Chris Johnson and their lousy defense.

Atlanta +3 at Philadelphia:  The Eagles should not be favored here, but their incredible string of victories off a bye influences this line.  I expect this trend to end this year.

Seattle at Detroit under 43.5 points:  The Lions have not been the point-scoring machine they were last year.  Also, Seattle's defense is no joke.  Also, Seattle's offense is a joke.

New York Giants -1.5 at Dallas:  JerryWorld has not provided much of a home-field advantage for the Cowboys.  I expect the Giants to win by at least a field goal.

New Orleans at Denver under 55.5 points:  Don't get me wrong, both teams will score, just not this much.

Plenty of teaser options.  I'll take all four three-team combinations of the following:

Atlanta +8.5
Seattle +8.5
Chicago -1.5 vs. Carolina
Dallas +8

Wednesday, October 17, 2012


NFL Week Seven Picks

I was overdue for a heaping dose of humility.  My picks went 0-5 (-5.5 units) last week, making me 20-18, +7 units for the season.  I have seven picks and a teaser this week.  Here we go!

Tennessee at Buffalo over 46.5 points:  These two don't stop anybody, and have some pieces on offense.  This looks like a track meet.

Cleveland +3 at Indianapolis:  Two young teams, trying to figure it out.  I'm taking the points.

Carolina +2.5 vs. Dallas:  Of course Dallas has more talent than Carolina, but which Cowboys team will show up?  The one that shoved Baltimore all over the field, or the one who choked it away at the end?  Either way, give me the home underdog.

New York Giants -5.5 vs. Washington:  I think the world of Redskins QB Robert Griffin III, but I think the linesmakers think too much of his team's chances this week.  The Giants win by double digits.

Tampa Bay +3 vs. New Orleans:  Another home underdog, and another edge to exploit.

Cincinnati +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh:  A third home underdog?  I must be living right.

Detroit at Chicago under 47.5 points:  Although both teams are capable of offensive fireworks, defense usually reigns in these divisional struggles, where there are no secrets.

And lastly, a three-team, six-point teaser.  If they all hit, it pays 3-1.

Carolina +8
Tampa Bay +8.5
Cincinnati +7.5

Saturday, October 13, 2012


NFL Week Six Picks

Last week's picks went 6-2, +3.8 units. Now 20-13 (+12.5 units) for the year, I will continue with a more normal five picks.

Atlanta -9 vs. Oakland:  I don't expect a total blowout here, as the Raiders are coming off their bye week and will probably keep it close early.  However, they are not in the Falcons' weight class, and will eventually lose by double digits.

Baltimore -3 vs. Dallas:  See above, as it is the exact same scenario.

Arizona -4 vs. Buffalo:  The Bills should be at least a touchdown underdog on the road against practically anybody.

Minnesota +2.5 at Washington:  I suspect the wrong team is favored here.  That's the bookmaker's fault, not mine.

Houston -3.5 vs. Green Bay:  I don't think the Packers can cover Andre Johnson, tackle Arian Foster, or block J.J. Watt.  I don't see how they can stay within a touchdown of this team.

Thursday, October 04, 2012


Nfl Week Five Picks

Last week's picks went 4-2, +1.9 units.  For the season, I am now 14-11, +8.7 units.  I have a whopping eight picks for this week.  I will probably regret this.

Atlanta -3 at Washington:  An undefeated team, favored by only a field goal.  I like my chances.  I also like the over 50.5 total points.

New York Giants -8.5 vs. Cleveland:  Seriously, I can't see the Browns scoring more than 13 points in this game.  Seems like the Giants could get to 24 without breaking a sweat.

Minnesota -5.5 vs. Tennessee:  It's time to consider the possibility that Minnesota is much improved.  Playing at home, they should win by at least a touchdown.

Chicago -4.5 at Jacksonville:  The Bears will build on their momentum from last week.  The Jags look cadaverous.  Already.

Denver at New England over 51.5 points:  Both these offenses are just hitting their stride.  I expect both to attain, or at least threaten, 30 points.

Buffalo at San Francisco over 44.5 points:  I'm sure the 49ers will win, but not sure enough to lay the 9.5 point spread.  If the Bills can find 14-17 points, the over feels a lot safer.

Houston -7.5 at New York Jets:  A home underdog getting over a touchdown would seem automatic, but not so fast, Sparky.  The Jets just lost their best offensive weapon in Santonio Holmes.  Their quarterback's confidence is shot, mainly by the signing of a backup whose confidence (or faith, to be more precise) is unjustified by rational evaluation.  Meanwhile, the Texans might be the most complete team in the league, and may be annoyed at the attention paid to their tabloid-friendly opponent.  Houston, early and often.

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