Thursday, November 29, 2012


NFL Week 13 Picks

Last week's picks were 6-4, +2.7 units.  For the season, I am now 41-45, +4.6 units.  I'll risk ten units again this week, here we go!

Chicago -4 vs. Seattle:  The Seahawks aren't bad...unless they are on the road.  Even then, they're more mediocre than anything else.  This should mean losing by at least a touchdown to the Bears.

Carolina -3 at Kansas City:  Once upon a time, a team going into Arrowhead Stadium in December faced certain destruction.  This Chiefs team is a fairy tale, though.  I also like the over 40 points total.

Detroit -4.5 vs. Indianapolis:  The Lions see their season slipping away, but should give the Colts a swift kick in the crotch.  See what I did there?

Cincinnati -1.5 at San Diego:  I'll take the team that has something to play for against the one that doesn't.  Sometimes, these games pick themselves.

Washington +2.5 vs. New York Giants:  I realize the Giants have awakened from their traditional mid-season slumber, but they may not know that Robert Griffin III is better than he was the first time they saw him, six weeks ago.  Count me among the crazies who think the Redskins can win this game, and the division.

My teaser attempts continue.  Once again, I am on all four three-team combinations of the following four games:

Green Bay -2.5 vs. Minnesota
New England -1.5 at Miami
San Diego +8
Washington +8.5

Saturday, November 24, 2012


NFL Week 12 Picks

A full plate of picks, after taking it easy on Turkey Day.

Cincinnati -8.5 vs. Oakland:  There is considerable difference of opinion on this one, but I don't think the 'Carson Palmer revenge factor' is worth very much.

Indianapolis -2.5 vs. Buffalo:  These team are very much going in opposite directions, and I will take the one on the upswing playing at home, thanks.

Baltimore -1 at San Diego:  The Ravens are quite mediocre on the road, but the Chargers have packed it in for the season.  The annual Norv Turner Deathwatch continues.  Fans hope the implosion also takes out their general manager.  I want the under 47 points total as well.

Green Bay +3 at New York Giants:  I don't think it would surprise anyone if last year's Giants showed up after their bye week and beat the Packers.  On the other hand, I don't think many people would be surprised if the Pack stole a game they didn't deserve to win, just like they did last week in Detroit.

Oh yes, there will be teasers.  We're taking all four three-team combinations of the following games:

Cincinnati -2.5
Cleveland +7.5 vs. Pittsburgh
St. Louis +8 at Arizona
Green Bay +8.5

Thursday, November 22, 2012


NFL Thanksgiving Day Pick

Last week's picks went 3-3, but since one of the wins was my teaser, I was up 0.5 units for the week.  For the season, I am 35-41, +1.9 units.  Only one pick for today, there will be more later.

New England -6.5 at New York Jets:  Even on the road, even on a short week, the Patriots are more than a touchdown better than the Jets.

Thursday, November 15, 2012


NFL Week 11 Picks

Last week's picks were a disastrous 2-8, -4.3 units.  My season record is now 32-38, +1.4 units.  My profitability hangs by a thread, but I plunge forward.

Philadelphia +3.5 at Washington:  Seems insane to go with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road, doesn't it?  QB aside, the Eagles are better than the Skins, and might even win this game outright...though I wouldn't bet on that.

Cleveland at Dallas under 44 points:  The Browns don't score much.  The Cowboys don't play particularly well at home.  I think Dallas will win, but I can't lay the touchdown-plus spread.  We'll just stick with the under.

Houston -14.5 vs. Jacksonville:  Coming off a big road win, you could almost expect the Texas to let their guard down.  But this is a big-boy team, and might polish off the Jags by halftime.

Cincinnati -3.5 at Kansas City:  The Chiefs, historically, have been good home underdogs.  I should mention they have never been as historically bad as they are now.  They made a supreme effort on Monday night, and came up short.  Also, the Bengals are better than their record.

Chicago at San Francisco under 38.5 points:  The 49ers' QB will probably play after his concussion.  The Bears' QB probably will not play after his.  Either way, both coaching staffs are quite conservative, and have outstanding defenses.  This looks like a 16-13 game, tops.

I also have one three-team, six-point teaser that pays 1.8 units if they all hit, or costs one unit if it doesn't.

Carolina +7.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Dallas -1.5
Denver -1.5 vs. San Diego

Thursday, November 08, 2012


NFL Week Ten Picks

Last week's picks went 3-2, +0.8 units.  For the season, I am now 30-30, +5.7 units.  So naturally I will not only make my normal five picks, but risk an additional five units on a complicated combination of teasers. Here we go.

New England -11 vs, Buffalo:  The Patriots have made a habit of pasting the Bills at home.  I don't expect much to change this week.

Tampa Bay -3 vs. San Diego:  This is another trend of long standing. West Coast teams traditionally struggle when they have to fly to the East Coast and play an early game.  No one has been more consistently lousy in this spot than the Chargers, and the Bucs are on fire.

Miami -6 vs. Tennessee:  The Dolphins are not a great team, but the Titans are definitely a bad one.  I have to believe the Fins will win by at least a touchdown at home.

San Francisco -11 vs. St. Louis:  Yes, I am laying serious points in two games this week.  In my defense, they are two good teams, at home, coming off their bye week, playing mediocre opposition.  I also like the under 38.5 total points in this game, because I don't see the Rams bringing much to the party.

Now, to the teasers.  I am playing all five four-team combinations of the following five games.  Each pays 3-1.

Baltimore -1.5 vs. Oakland
New Orleans +8.5 vs. Atlanta
Minnesota +8.5 vs. Detroit
Philadelphia +7.5 vs. Dallas
Houston +7.5 at Chicago

Saturday, November 03, 2012


NFL Week Nine Picks

After a hot start, mediocrity has fully bloomed.  Last week's picks went 4-5, -0.4 units.  My season record is now 27-28, +4.9 units.  Here's five picks to right the ship.

Houston -10 vs. Buffalo:  Both teams are coming off their bye, so that's a wash.  The difference is that the Texans are eager to get back to winning, while the Bills are in no hurry to return to losing.  They will score some garbage-time points, enough to make the over 47.5 total points a good bet as well.

Chicago -3.5 at Tennessee:  Let's face it, the Bears are at least a touchdown better than the Titans, even in Nashville.  They should slowly grind them down and win going away.

Tampa Bay +1.5 at Oakland:  I think the wrong team is favored, as the Bucs are red-hot.

New York Giants -3 vs. Pittsburgh:  First, Wingnuts on Parade wishes to express support for all victims of Hurricane Sandy.  Second, let's make some money out of this situation.  The Steelers are flying in on Sunday, as no hotels are available.  Football teams hate to have their routines disrupted.  This is just enough to tilt things in favor of the Giants.

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