Saturday, November 30, 2013


NFL Week 13 Picks

Last week's picks were 2-3, -1.2 units. My season record stands at 29-33, +5.8 units. With a win from Turkey Day in my pocket, let's see what other trouble I can find.

Miami at New York Jets under 40 points:  I don't like the Dolphins' chances of scoring on the road against the tough Jets defense, and I don't like the Jets' chances of scoring anywhere.

Atlanta at Buffalo under 48.5 points:  This game is in Toronto, not Buffalo. The dome team from the South will have no clue. The Bills are a young team just finding their way on offense.

New England -7 at Houston:  These teams are positively screaming in opposite directions. Give me the one headed up.

Cincinnati +1.5 at San Diego:  In this matchup of two maddeningly inconsistent teams, it is the Bengals' turn to look like a contender.

Also, a three-team, six-point teaser, pays 1.8 to 1 if it hits:

Carolina -1.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Miami +8
Cincinnati +7.5

Thursday, November 28, 2013


NFL Thanksgiving Pick

Just one quickie for today. A two-team, six-point teaser, risking 1.2 units to win 1.

Dallas -2.5 vs. Oakland
Pittsburgh +8.5 at Baltimore

Saturday, November 23, 2013


NFL Week 12 Picks

I hit all four of the "overs" last week, but whiffed on the teaser, so for the week, I was 4-1, +3 units. For the season, I am 27-30, +7 units. Let's risk some more!

Carolina at Miami over 40.5 points:  This is the interconference angle that's been working all year. Unlike most of the games on this week's schedule, weather should not be a factor.

Indianapolis at Arizona over 44.5 points:  This is the other interconference game, and it is indoors, so we get a pass on the weather here as well.

Denver -2 at New England:  The marquee matchup of the weekend, Brady vs. Manning, blah blah blah. The quarterbacks should be considered a wash. The equation now reads Broncos (-Manning) > Patriots (-Brady). I'm also going to be a contrarian on the weather and take the over 52.5 points as well.

Finally, a six-team, six-point teaser, pays 7-1 in the unlikely event that it hits:

Detroit -1.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh +7.5 at Cleveland
Chicago +8 at St. Louis
Oakland +8.5 vs. Tennessee
Dallas +8.5 at New York Giants
New England +8.5 vs. Denver

Saturday, November 16, 2013


NFL Week Eleven Picks

Last week's picks were 3-3, -0.2 units. This runs my season record to 23-29, +4.0 units. We're going to try something different this week, picking only overs (plus the obligatory teaser).

Detroit at Pittsburgh over 45.5 points:  The hottest trend this season is for inter-conference matchups, which have gone over the total 60% of the time. The Lions are always an over waiting to happen, and the Steelers offense has shown signs of life lately.

Baltimore at Chicago over 41.5 points:  See above. This line has moved down, likely due to weather. Here's the thing about bad weather:  the offensive players know when they are going to change directions, and the defensive players don't. As a result, defenders fall down more. Touchdown!

Arizona at Jacksonville over 40 points:  See also above. Admittedly, these offenses aren't great, but 40 is not a lot of points in today's NFL. An unwatchable 23-20 game suits me just fine.

Minnesota at Seattle over 45 points:  The Vikings are not very good, but I suspect the Seahawks will do most of the heavy lifting here.

Finally, a five-team, six-point teaser, pays 4.5 to 1 if it hits:

New York Jets +7.5 at Buffalo
Pittsburgh +8.5
Miami +8 vs. San Diego
Arizona -2
Denver -1.5 vs. Kansas City

Saturday, November 09, 2013


NFL Week Ten Picks

Back on track. Last week's picks went 3-2, and since one of the wins was my teaser pick, I was up 2.3 units for the week. For the season, my record stands at 20-26, +4.2 units. Here are this week's selections.

Green Bay +1.5 vs. Philadelphia:  Linemakers (and moronic gamblers) tend to overreact to last week's results. Losing Aaron Rodgers is a tough blow, to be sure, but backup Seneca Wallace will be much better than he looked last week. Also, Eagles QB Nick Foles is unlikely to play like Peyton Manning two weeks in a row.

Buffalo +3 at Pittsburgh:  The Steelers are favored solely on reputation now. The Bills are actually a better team, and getting their starting QB back into the lineup.

Seattle -4 at Atlanta:  The Seahawks have struggled to cover spreads lately, but I think that ends this week, as the Falcons continue to wander aimlessly through their season.

Carolina +6.5 at San Francisco:  This is a heavyweight matchup, which to me means that nobody should be getting almost a touchdown. I would be surprised if Carolina won the game, but they should definitely be around.

Miami at Tampa Bay under 41.5 points:  OK, this game didn't look too appealing when the schedule came out. Now it's the Implosion Bowl, with the Bucs winless on the season and Miami under fire for a locker-room culture that would make Animal House blush. This should be unwatchable.

Also, I have a three-team, six-point teaser, pays 1.6 to one:

Green Bay +7.5
Baltimore +7.5 vs. Cincinnati
Tampa Bay +7.5

Sunday, November 03, 2013


NFL Week Nine Picks

Last week's picks were 3-3, -0.2 units. The bleeding is more manageable, but my season record stands at 17-24, +1.9 units. The margin of error is vanishing. Nevertheless, let's risk some more!

Carolina -7 vs. Atlanta:  This Falcons team was in the NFC Championship Game last year, right? Just making sure. Stunning to think the Panthers have a lot better chance of playing in that game this year.

San Diego +1 at Washington:  Vegas linemakers had this everywhere from San Diego -1 to even to Washington -1. I'll take the better team with a point, even on the road.

Philadelphia at Oakland under 45.5 points:  I think this number is just asking too much of these two offenses.

Indianapolis -2.5 at Houston:  This just screams "IT'S A TRAP!" like Admiral Ackbar in "Return of the Jedi". I can't help it, because the Colts are just much better.

Lastly, a 4-team, 6-point teaser, pays 2.5 to 1:

Carolina -1.5
Philadelphia +8.5
Cleveland +8.5 vs. Baltimore
Houston +8.5

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