Saturday, December 28, 2013


NFL Week 17 Picks

Last week's picks were 2-3, -1.2 units. For the season, my record is 39-44, +6.5 units. It's all slipping away. Can I stop my slide? Week 17 is treacherous, with many unusual motivations to consider. Here we go!

Tennessee -7 vs. Houston:  The Texans are playing out the string, with the further distraction of speculation about their next coach. The Titans should easily win by more than a touchdown.

Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Cleveland:  The Browns have been better than expected, but one thing that has not changed is that they are owned by the Steelers. Another easy touchdown-plus win here.

Washington +3.5 at New York Giants:  Too many injuries have afflicted the Giants down the stretch. Though the Redskins lost their quarterback, his backup is competent, and he has all his weapons intact.

Jacksonville +450 at Indianapolis:  Yes, I am picking the Jaguars to win outright here. The Colts will use this more or less meaningless game as their bye week before the playoffs. Since I'm getting 4.5 to 1, it's worth the risk.

New York Jets +6 at Miami:  I seriously considered taking the Jets to win outright here as well, but the payoff for that was only 2.3 to 1. I'll just take the six-point head start in game they would love to win, in order to knock their division rivals out of the playoffs.

Sunday, December 22, 2013


NFL Week 16 Picks

Last week's picks were 2-3, +0.5 units. My season record stands at 37-41. +7.7 units. I'm following last week's template, with a money-line pick and a teaser to spice things up. It's crunch time.

Kansas City -6.5 vs. Indianapolis:  The Chiefs have rounded back into their early-season form. They should easily win by at least a touchdown at home.

Minnesota at Cincinnati over 47 points:  I will ride the inter-conference angle until I drop.

Jacksonville +200 vs. Tennessee:  The Jaguars should be favored, but they are relatively large underdogs. By betting them to win outright, I can get 2-1 on my money. This is a risk worth taking, in my opinion.

Pittsburgh at Green Bay over 43 points:  The weather will not be a deterrent in this one. The Packers' defense is suspect, and the Steelers' defense is ossifying before our eyes.

Lastly, a five-team, six-team teaser, pays 4.5-1 if it hits:

Buffalo +8.5 vs. Miami
Cleveland +7.5 at New York Jets
Cincinnati -2
Pittsburgh +7.5
New England +8 at Baltimore

Sunday, December 15, 2013


NFL Week 15 Picka

Last week's picks were 2-3, -1.2 units. For the season, I am 35-38, +7.2 units. Will I spiral downward in December like the Cowboys? Let's find out.

Jacksonville +2.5 vs. Buffalo:  The Jaguars are actually playing much better of late. The Bills, not so much. Going to go for the home underdog here.

Philadelphia -6 at Minnesota:  Not going with the home underdog here. The Vikings are missing Adrian Peterson and his backup, Toby Gerhart. They are not going to keep up with the Eagles' diverse attack.

New York Jets at Carolina under 41 points:  Both teams have great defenses and dubious offenses. Good enough for me.

Green Bay to win +240 at Dallas:  Instead of a spread, I'm picking the Packers to win the game outright, which pays 2.4 to 1.

And a three-team, six-point teaser, pays 1.4 to 1 if it hits:

Tennessee +8.5 vs. Arizona
Jacksonville +8.5
Pittsburgh +8 vs. Cincinnati

Saturday, December 07, 2013


NFL Week 14 Picks

Last week's picks were 4-2, +2.6 units. My season record is now 33-35, +8.4 units. Things get really tough in December, when the books know the teams inside and out. We will endeavor to keep out roll going.

New England -9.5 vs. Cleveland:  Some teams just can't be trusted to cover large spreads, but not the Patriots, particularly at home. They will reliably lay the wood to the Browns.

Oakland +3 at New York Jets:  The Raiders are the better team. If I had typed that sentence in Week One, I would be confined for the public safety.

New Orleans -3 vs. Carolina:  This line is affected by the Panthers' eight-game winning streak, and the Saints having been dismantled on Monday night. Both are overstated. The Saints are murder at home, and knowing they have to play in Charlotte in two weeks, they will dominate this week.

New York Giants at San Diego over 47 points:  Playing the inter-conference angle again. There are two others on the schedule, but the weather in Baltimore and Washington makes them ill-advised.

And a three-team, six-point teaser, pays 1.6 to 1 if it hits:

Detroit +8.5 at Philadelphia
Buffalo +8.5 at Tampa Bay
Seattle +8.5 at San Francisco

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