Friday, October 31, 2014


NFL Week Nine Picks

Oh no, I suck again! I went 2-4, -1.5 units last week, making my season mark 18-28, -9.6 units.

San Diego +2.5 at Miami:  Wrong team favored.

Dallas -3 vs. Arizona:  What a square I am. While I'm at it, why not take over 44.5 points too?

Denver at New England over 53 points:  I don't know who is going to win, but I feel neither team will stop the other very often.

Sunday, October 26, 2014


NFL Week Eight Picks

I continue to spiral out of control. Last week's results of 2-4 (-2.3 units) drops my season record to 16-24, -8.1 units. It might take the rest of the year to climb out of this hole. Let's get started.

Buffalo +3 at New York Jets:  I just don't understand this line. The Jets are awful. Give me the mediocre Bills and the points.

Green Bay +2.5 at New Orleans:  I am aware how much better the Saints are at home. But the Packers are better, hotter and healthier. And getting points.

Lastly, a round-robin six-point teaser. I will take all (four) three-team combinations of the following four games. Each of them risks one unit to win 1.6 units.

Minnesota +8.5 at Tampa Bay
Cincinnati +8 vs. Baltimore
Philadelphia +7.5 at Arizona
Green Bay +8.5

Sunday, October 19, 2014


NFL Week Seven Picks

Disaster. Last week's 0-6 (-6.5 units) slate left me at 14-20, -5.8 units for the season. I think that's only the second time I've been skunked, though I don't much feel like looking it up. Time to get back on that horse.

Cincinnati +3.5 at Indianapolis:  This one could go the other way fairly easily, but give me the Bengals plus more than a field goal in a playoff-style matchup.

Chicago -3 vs. Miami:  I think Good Jay Cutler shows up today, and the Dolphins lack the firepower to keep up.

Green Bay -6.5 vs. Carolina:  Cam Newton is doing more with less than any quarterback in the league, but his defense has abandoned him, and Aaron Rodgers is doing more with more. I think they can win by a touchdown.

New York Giants +6.5 at Dallas:  Hang on. The Giants got crushed last week, and the Cowboys won convincingly in Seattle. What gives? Well, those two events conspire to inflate the line, making New York a value play.

Minnesota at Buffalo under 43 points:  The wind is howling in Buffalo today, and I don't think Minnesota is going to contribute much to this total.

And lastly, a two-team money line parlay. Both teams have to win outright, no spread. Pays 7.75 units if it hits.

St. Louis vs. Seattle

Sunday, October 12, 2014


NFL Week Six Picks

Last week's picks were 5-3, +2.6 units. That pulled me out of the hole, now at 14-14, +0.7 units for the season. Now it's time to get ahead.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland over 47 points:  I almost took the Steelers +1.5 here, but I can't quite shake the feeling that the Browns might finally be a real team. Here's something real:  The Browns have been a consistent over, and that should continue.

Tennessee -4 vs. Jacksonville:  This would be an awful game to watch, but I don't have to put myself through that. The Titans are not good, and are using their backup QB. But the line moved three points in response to the starter's injury, and trust me, he wasn't worth that much. Also, the Jaguars are terrible.

Cincinnati -7 vs. Carolina:  I expect a big bounce back from the Bengals today. Teams that get embarrassed in prime time on the road are strong plays when they come home the next week.

San Diego -7 at Oakland:  The conventional wisdom is that a team playing at home, against a hated divisional rival, getting a full touchdown, is a strong play. However, that fails to take into account just how pathetic the Raiders are right now. The Chargers appear to be an elite team, and those teams stomp bad teams, no matter what.

New York Giants +3 at Philadelphia:  The better team is getting the points here. I'm not going to over-think this one.

Lastly, a five-team, six-point teaser, pays 4.5 units if it hits:

Pittsburgh +7.5

Detroit +8 at Minnesota

Buffalo +8.5 vs. New England

Seattle -2.5 vs. Dallas

New York Giants +8.5

Sunday, October 05, 2014


NFL Week Five Picks

Last week's picks were 1-2, -1.1 units. For the season, my record stands at 9-11, -1.6 units. This stinks. I have a blizzard of picks this week, mainly because I couldn't talk myself out of any of them.

Cleveland +2 at Tennessee:  Pretty sure the wrong team is favored here. I know the Browns are on the road, but they're coming off a bye, and the Titans' home crowd doesn't scare anybody. Give me the better team and points every time.

Atlanta at New York Giants over 50 total points:  The Falcons are always a good candidate for overs, as they have very good skill-position players, and very little defense. The Giants are just starting to click with a new offense, and this one should cash relatively early.

Pittsburgh -6 at Jacksonville:  The Jags are wretched, and the Steelers are going to get well on them. They do have some defensive issues, though, so I also want the over 47 points total.

San Diego -6.5 vs. New York Jets:  The Chargers have been one of the best teams in the league that no one talks about. The Jets have traditionally been their kryptonite,  but their quarterback is a turnover machine.

Cincinnati even at New England:  The Patriots are teetering on the brink of mediocrity, and the Bengals look like the most complete team in the league. This is usually where the Pats turn it around, but I think their slide is, well, permanent this time. Their window is slammed shut Sunday night.

Seattle at Washington over 45 points:  The Seahawks are not quite as dominant on the road, and will give up some points. They'll score some, too. I think both teams cross 20 points, making the over the play.

And a three-team, six-point teaser, pays 1.6 units if it hits:

Chicago +8.5 at Carolina
Cleveland +8
Denver -1.5 vs. Denver

Thursday, October 02, 2014


NFL Week Five Thursday Pick

Green Bay-9 vs. Minnesota

More later.

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