Sunday, February 04, 2007


Super Bowl Picks

My picks were 0-2 in the last round, making my season record 53-48-7. If I had bet the picks in Vegas, using the standard bet-eleven-to-win-ten juice, I would be two bucks ahead at this point. I would like to protect this winning season, pathetic though it may be; but I am a degenerate, after all. So let's start with the straight bets and then move to the propositions that make the Super Bowl so much fun.

Chicago +7 vs. Indianapolis: I am certain that no one has ever been more prepared to play a Super Bowl than Peyton Manning. He was almost literally born to this task. But the weather is poor, looking very much like the first Super Bowl to be played in the rain. Despite state-of-the-art drainage systems, it will slow down the high-flying Colts offense, and give aid and comfort to the Bears' straight-ahead running style. This has also lead me to take the under 48 points total.

Speaking of the under, my favorite proposition is 36-42 total points at 4/1. This means if it loses, it counts as one loss on my record, but it counts for four wins if it hits. Similarly, I like the last score of the game to be a Colts field goal at 3/1. I'll take my chances with Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri, who has been money in clutch situations his entire career.

Of course, there are more esoteric props out there. The over/under on the National Anthem is 1:44; but since Billy Joel is aware of it, and has even threatened to bet on it himself, I would stay far away. Peyton Manning rushing attempts versus Dixie Chicks Grammys is also widely available. I will leave that stuff to the real degenerates.

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