Saturday, October 29, 2005
NFL Week 8 Picks
Finally, two winning weeks in a row. Going 3-2 last week raised my season record to 16-20-1, and heading north. The bit is now firmly between my teeth.
Carolina -7.5 vs. Minnesota: The Vikings got their emotional victory at home against the rival Packers last week. This week, they will return to their pattern of falling apart at the seams. On the road, against a team with a good pass rush, they will turn the ball over frequently and lose by a bunch.
Green Bay +9 at Cincinnati: The Bengals are good, and smarting after getting punked by the Steelers last week. They will almost certainly win this game. But nine points is too much to give Brett Favre, who will complete passes to the waterboy, the trainer and two guys out of the stands to make up for injuries to his receiving corps.
Tampa Bay -11.5 at San Francisco: The Niners will be hard-pressed to score on Tampa's defense. The Buc's offense, though somewhat hobbled, will benefit from the butter-soft defense they will face. It is a good week to be Chris Simms, the former backup starting at QB for Tampa. It is a bad week to be Ken Dorsey, the former backup starting at QB for Frisco.
New York Giants vs. Washington over 42 total: This number is low for two of the most explosive offenses in the league. And I can't believe I just said that about these two teams. That's the NFL for you. Anyway, they should blow past the number in the third quarter.
San Diego vs. Kansas City over 51 total: Now these two are the Kings of the Over, and the number is reflective of that. I don't care. Two good offenses plus two bad defenses plus perfect weather equals a track meet, and the scoreboard should light up like a pinball machine.
Carolina -7.5 vs. Minnesota: The Vikings got their emotional victory at home against the rival Packers last week. This week, they will return to their pattern of falling apart at the seams. On the road, against a team with a good pass rush, they will turn the ball over frequently and lose by a bunch.
Green Bay +9 at Cincinnati: The Bengals are good, and smarting after getting punked by the Steelers last week. They will almost certainly win this game. But nine points is too much to give Brett Favre, who will complete passes to the waterboy, the trainer and two guys out of the stands to make up for injuries to his receiving corps.
Tampa Bay -11.5 at San Francisco: The Niners will be hard-pressed to score on Tampa's defense. The Buc's offense, though somewhat hobbled, will benefit from the butter-soft defense they will face. It is a good week to be Chris Simms, the former backup starting at QB for Tampa. It is a bad week to be Ken Dorsey, the former backup starting at QB for Frisco.
New York Giants vs. Washington over 42 total: This number is low for two of the most explosive offenses in the league. And I can't believe I just said that about these two teams. That's the NFL for you. Anyway, they should blow past the number in the third quarter.
San Diego vs. Kansas City over 51 total: Now these two are the Kings of the Over, and the number is reflective of that. I don't care. Two good offenses plus two bad defenses plus perfect weather equals a track meet, and the scoreboard should light up like a pinball machine.
Saturday, October 22, 2005
NFL Week 7 Picks
A 4-1 week brings my record to 13-18-1, and gives me hope that I can salvage this season. First, I need to have two good weeks in a row. Here are this week's picks....
Green Bay at Minnesota over 44 total: I was all set to take the Packers and lay the two-point spread, but I suffered an anxiety attack. The Vikings, mortally embarrassed off the field by their "Love Boat" episode, certainly don't want to be embarrassed on the field in front of their home fans. What's left of them, anyway. I'm expecting a lot of scoring in this one, regardless of the final outcome.
Indianapolis -15.5 at Houston: Yes, it's a lot of points. But Indy is very, very good, and the Texans are historically bad. The Colts will be motivated to go into their bye week on a high note. Houston's motivations are unimportant, as they stink on ice.
Seattle -3.5 vs. Dallas: The Seahawks are very good at home, and might actually be the best team in the NFC. The Cowboys will be without stud tailback Julius Jones, and will find it difficult to compete on the road without a running game.
Washington -13 vs San Francisco: The Redskins are laying a lot of points for an offensively-challenged team. The Niners, on the other hand, have a defense that cures all woes. Mark Brunell explodes, Clinton Portis finds the end zone for the first time this year...in fact, I like the over 36.5 total, as well. Heck, the 'Skins might make the number by themselves.
Green Bay at Minnesota over 44 total: I was all set to take the Packers and lay the two-point spread, but I suffered an anxiety attack. The Vikings, mortally embarrassed off the field by their "Love Boat" episode, certainly don't want to be embarrassed on the field in front of their home fans. What's left of them, anyway. I'm expecting a lot of scoring in this one, regardless of the final outcome.
Indianapolis -15.5 at Houston: Yes, it's a lot of points. But Indy is very, very good, and the Texans are historically bad. The Colts will be motivated to go into their bye week on a high note. Houston's motivations are unimportant, as they stink on ice.
Seattle -3.5 vs. Dallas: The Seahawks are very good at home, and might actually be the best team in the NFC. The Cowboys will be without stud tailback Julius Jones, and will find it difficult to compete on the road without a running game.
Washington -13 vs San Francisco: The Redskins are laying a lot of points for an offensively-challenged team. The Niners, on the other hand, have a defense that cures all woes. Mark Brunell explodes, Clinton Portis finds the end zone for the first time this year...in fact, I like the over 36.5 total, as well. Heck, the 'Skins might make the number by themselves.
Sunday, October 16, 2005
NFL Week 2 Picks
This post is being made on Sunday morning instead of Saturday because I was busy, and, well, I was still licking my wounds after a 1-4-1 week. At 9-17-1, my season is starting to circle the drain. Nothing to do for it but keep paddling.
Chicago -3 vs. Minnesota: The Vikings' season-long implosion reached a new level this week, with 17 players accused of staging an orgy on two boats this week. Distractions are death in the NFL, and right now the Vikes have the attention span of a puppy.
Cincinnati -3 vs. Tennessee: Two weeks ago the Bengals burned me as a favorite. Last week, they pushed as an underdog. Come on already, guys. My record can't take much more of this. This has to be the week they start playing well again.
Dallas vs. New York Giants over 47 points: Incredibly, the Giants are leading the league in scoring, and Dallas' secondary is vulnerable. Injuries have thinned the Giants' secondary as well, and their offensive revival is just as implausible. Sixty points is a distinct possibility here.
Denver vs. New England over 47 points: Another shootout is brewing here. Defensive injuries on both sides and the two best game-planners in the league should make the scoreboard look like a pinball machine.
Seattle -9.5 vs. Houston: Things could not get any worse for the Texans. Head Coach Dom Capers has real-estate agents circling his house like vultures. Now they play on the road against a team whose strengths dovetail nicely with their weaknesses. This will be ugly.
Chicago -3 vs. Minnesota: The Vikings' season-long implosion reached a new level this week, with 17 players accused of staging an orgy on two boats this week. Distractions are death in the NFL, and right now the Vikes have the attention span of a puppy.
Cincinnati -3 vs. Tennessee: Two weeks ago the Bengals burned me as a favorite. Last week, they pushed as an underdog. Come on already, guys. My record can't take much more of this. This has to be the week they start playing well again.
Dallas vs. New York Giants over 47 points: Incredibly, the Giants are leading the league in scoring, and Dallas' secondary is vulnerable. Injuries have thinned the Giants' secondary as well, and their offensive revival is just as implausible. Sixty points is a distinct possibility here.
Denver vs. New England over 47 points: Another shootout is brewing here. Defensive injuries on both sides and the two best game-planners in the league should make the scoreboard look like a pinball machine.
Seattle -9.5 vs. Houston: Things could not get any worse for the Texans. Head Coach Dom Capers has real-estate agents circling his house like vultures. Now they play on the road against a team whose strengths dovetail nicely with their weaknesses. This will be ugly.
Saturday, October 08, 2005
NFL Week 5 Picks
Finally, a winning week, and order has been restored to the universe. Going 4-2 last week brings my season record to 8-13. Perhaps I should make six picks every week instead of five. We'll try it again this week and see how it goes....
Chicago +3 at Cleveland: I have no problem picking a young, inexperienced team on the road when 1) the home team is young and inexperienced too; 2) they have the better running game and defense; 3) they're getting points. That's a trifecta for Da Bears.
Baltimore at Detroit under 33 total: These putrid offenses COULD combine for 33 points...if they played a doubleheader. What's that? There's no doubleheaders in the NFL? Gimme the under, please. Thank you. Amnesty International is investigating reports that Gitmo detainees will be forced to watch this game.
Indianapolis -14.5 at San Francisco: Very possibly the biggest spread of the year, and for good reason. Indy could cover with me at quarterback. The Colts rediscovered their offense last week, and for Niners fans, this could be like watching a snuff flick starring your girlfriend.
Cincinnati +3 at Jacksonville: The Bengals burned me as a heavy favorite last weekend. I don't hold a grudge. Besides, they're getting points in a low-scoring game. Low enough, in fact, that I also like the under 37.5 total.
Tampa Bay -3 at New York Jets: The Jets have the kind of defense that wins Super Bowls. Unfortunately, they have the kind of offense that shouldn't be allowed to wander around alone. They have brought back 42-year-old Vinny Testeverde, and I understand he can still bench-press 400 pounds. Which will come in handy for removing Bucs linemen from his chest.
Chicago +3 at Cleveland: I have no problem picking a young, inexperienced team on the road when 1) the home team is young and inexperienced too; 2) they have the better running game and defense; 3) they're getting points. That's a trifecta for Da Bears.
Baltimore at Detroit under 33 total: These putrid offenses COULD combine for 33 points...if they played a doubleheader. What's that? There's no doubleheaders in the NFL? Gimme the under, please. Thank you. Amnesty International is investigating reports that Gitmo detainees will be forced to watch this game.
Indianapolis -14.5 at San Francisco: Very possibly the biggest spread of the year, and for good reason. Indy could cover with me at quarterback. The Colts rediscovered their offense last week, and for Niners fans, this could be like watching a snuff flick starring your girlfriend.
Cincinnati +3 at Jacksonville: The Bengals burned me as a heavy favorite last weekend. I don't hold a grudge. Besides, they're getting points in a low-scoring game. Low enough, in fact, that I also like the under 37.5 total.
Tampa Bay -3 at New York Jets: The Jets have the kind of defense that wins Super Bowls. Unfortunately, they have the kind of offense that shouldn't be allowed to wander around alone. They have brought back 42-year-old Vinny Testeverde, and I understand he can still bench-press 400 pounds. Which will come in handy for removing Bucs linemen from his chest.
Saturday, October 01, 2005
NFL Week 4 Picks
OK, this isn't funny any more. Another 1-4 week puts me at 4-11 for the season. I've heard of deep holes before, but it appears I'm using a steam shovel to dig mine. Nevertheless, here is a six-pack to start climbing back out.
Atlanta vs. Minnesota under 44.5: The Vikings' offensive eruption last week was a mirage, coming as it did against the hapless Saints. On the road, against a real defense, they won't score much. The Falcons will run the ball, keeping the score down.
Cincinnati -10 vs. Houston: It's a lot of points to lay, true. But the Texans are horrible, and (insert adjective worse than horrible) on the road. They may not score at all. Because of this, and because the Bengals will run the ball after blowing out to a comfortable lead, I also like the under 41.5 total here as well.
Indianapolis at Tennessee under 45: The Colts' opponents have decided they prefer the slow death of Edgerrin James to the quick death of Peyton Manning. Combined with their much-improved defense, that makes the under a good play until the lines catch up. Of course, the way things have been going for me, they could combine for 87 points.
Philadelphia +1.5 at Kansas City: The Chiefs are coming off a Monday night embarrassment in Denver, and are back at home, one the toughest places to play in the league. Donovan McNabb is a one-man infirmary. I'm still taking the Eagles and the points.
Seattle +2 at Washington: The Redskins are a fraud at 2-0. but the Seahawks are an iffy proposition at best on the road. Seattle will grab an early lead, surrender all or most of it, but win a squeaker in the end.
Atlanta vs. Minnesota under 44.5: The Vikings' offensive eruption last week was a mirage, coming as it did against the hapless Saints. On the road, against a real defense, they won't score much. The Falcons will run the ball, keeping the score down.
Cincinnati -10 vs. Houston: It's a lot of points to lay, true. But the Texans are horrible, and (insert adjective worse than horrible) on the road. They may not score at all. Because of this, and because the Bengals will run the ball after blowing out to a comfortable lead, I also like the under 41.5 total here as well.
Indianapolis at Tennessee under 45: The Colts' opponents have decided they prefer the slow death of Edgerrin James to the quick death of Peyton Manning. Combined with their much-improved defense, that makes the under a good play until the lines catch up. Of course, the way things have been going for me, they could combine for 87 points.
Philadelphia +1.5 at Kansas City: The Chiefs are coming off a Monday night embarrassment in Denver, and are back at home, one the toughest places to play in the league. Donovan McNabb is a one-man infirmary. I'm still taking the Eagles and the points.
Seattle +2 at Washington: The Redskins are a fraud at 2-0. but the Seahawks are an iffy proposition at best on the road. Seattle will grab an early lead, surrender all or most of it, but win a squeaker in the end.
