Saturday, October 01, 2005
NFL Week 4 Picks
OK, this isn't funny any more. Another 1-4 week puts me at 4-11 for the season. I've heard of deep holes before, but it appears I'm using a steam shovel to dig mine. Nevertheless, here is a six-pack to start climbing back out.
Atlanta vs. Minnesota under 44.5: The Vikings' offensive eruption last week was a mirage, coming as it did against the hapless Saints. On the road, against a real defense, they won't score much. The Falcons will run the ball, keeping the score down.
Cincinnati -10 vs. Houston: It's a lot of points to lay, true. But the Texans are horrible, and (insert adjective worse than horrible) on the road. They may not score at all. Because of this, and because the Bengals will run the ball after blowing out to a comfortable lead, I also like the under 41.5 total here as well.
Indianapolis at Tennessee under 45: The Colts' opponents have decided they prefer the slow death of Edgerrin James to the quick death of Peyton Manning. Combined with their much-improved defense, that makes the under a good play until the lines catch up. Of course, the way things have been going for me, they could combine for 87 points.
Philadelphia +1.5 at Kansas City: The Chiefs are coming off a Monday night embarrassment in Denver, and are back at home, one the toughest places to play in the league. Donovan McNabb is a one-man infirmary. I'm still taking the Eagles and the points.
Seattle +2 at Washington: The Redskins are a fraud at 2-0. but the Seahawks are an iffy proposition at best on the road. Seattle will grab an early lead, surrender all or most of it, but win a squeaker in the end.
Atlanta vs. Minnesota under 44.5: The Vikings' offensive eruption last week was a mirage, coming as it did against the hapless Saints. On the road, against a real defense, they won't score much. The Falcons will run the ball, keeping the score down.
Cincinnati -10 vs. Houston: It's a lot of points to lay, true. But the Texans are horrible, and (insert adjective worse than horrible) on the road. They may not score at all. Because of this, and because the Bengals will run the ball after blowing out to a comfortable lead, I also like the under 41.5 total here as well.
Indianapolis at Tennessee under 45: The Colts' opponents have decided they prefer the slow death of Edgerrin James to the quick death of Peyton Manning. Combined with their much-improved defense, that makes the under a good play until the lines catch up. Of course, the way things have been going for me, they could combine for 87 points.
Philadelphia +1.5 at Kansas City: The Chiefs are coming off a Monday night embarrassment in Denver, and are back at home, one the toughest places to play in the league. Donovan McNabb is a one-man infirmary. I'm still taking the Eagles and the points.
Seattle +2 at Washington: The Redskins are a fraud at 2-0. but the Seahawks are an iffy proposition at best on the road. Seattle will grab an early lead, surrender all or most of it, but win a squeaker in the end.
