Saturday, December 31, 2011
NFL Week 17 Picks
Wow. Once again, I catch a huge break in Week 16 to get back on the right side of the ledger. Although my straight picks did not fare well, I only lost one teaser leg, so last week was 22-18, +19.7 units. This makes me 67-78, +7.9 units for the season.
This week is difficult, because motivations vary wildly. Some good teams are resting studs for the playoffs. Some decent teams must win to get in. Some bad teams are playing out the string. BUT: some bad teams are motivated to spoil others' seasons. Some decent teams will crack under the pressure (I'm looking at you, Tony Romo). Some good teams will want to make a statement. It can be tough to figure out.
I have four I like, and I like them so much that I'm going to parlay them. The spreads don't change, like they would in a teaser, but the payouts are higher. If any of them lose, I am out one unit, but if they all win, I get ten units. Just the type of risk I want to take while nursing a lead. I should note there are plenty of teaser options again this week, but I do not want to go back to the well. Here's the picks.
Detroit at Green Bay over 41 points: This total has gone way down as news has leaked of Packers starters playing few, if any, minutes. They needn't worry. This is a deep team. Also, the Lions' offense would probably hang 24 points on the starters; no telling what they may do to the backups.
Pittsburgh -6 at Cleveland: It makes absolutely no difference whether Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. They will smash the Browns because, well, that's what they do.
San Diego +3 at Oakland: Although the Raiders are the ones who can make the playoffs, the Chargers are the team that is playing better of late. And they are getting points, with a chance to wreck a hated rival.
Seattle +3 at Arizona: Wrong team favored here, as well.
This week is difficult, because motivations vary wildly. Some good teams are resting studs for the playoffs. Some decent teams must win to get in. Some bad teams are playing out the string. BUT: some bad teams are motivated to spoil others' seasons. Some decent teams will crack under the pressure (I'm looking at you, Tony Romo). Some good teams will want to make a statement. It can be tough to figure out.
I have four I like, and I like them so much that I'm going to parlay them. The spreads don't change, like they would in a teaser, but the payouts are higher. If any of them lose, I am out one unit, but if they all win, I get ten units. Just the type of risk I want to take while nursing a lead. I should note there are plenty of teaser options again this week, but I do not want to go back to the well. Here's the picks.
Detroit at Green Bay over 41 points: This total has gone way down as news has leaked of Packers starters playing few, if any, minutes. They needn't worry. This is a deep team. Also, the Lions' offense would probably hang 24 points on the starters; no telling what they may do to the backups.
Pittsburgh -6 at Cleveland: It makes absolutely no difference whether Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. They will smash the Browns because, well, that's what they do.
San Diego +3 at Oakland: Although the Raiders are the ones who can make the playoffs, the Chargers are the team that is playing better of late. And they are getting points, with a chance to wreck a hated rival.
Seattle +3 at Arizona: Wrong team favored here, as well.
Friday, December 23, 2011
NFL Week 16 Picks
My straight picks were 2-3 last week, and I missed on the teaser. I am now 45-60, -11.8 units for the season. It was Week 16 last year when a desperate play swung me from loss to profit. We're going to swing for the fences again this week.
Tennessee -7.5 vs. Jacksonville: This Titans team, despite losing to the Colts last week, isn't bad at all. The Jaguars? Oh yeah, they're bad.
New England -9.5 vs. Miami: Patriots are hitting their stride.
Carolina -7.5 vs Tampa Bay: Bucs are playing out the string, Panthers are energized by their enormous (and enormously talented) young quarterback.
San Diego +3 at Detroit: I expect this game to be very close, so I want the points.
New Orleans -4 vs. Atlanta: Punishing a rogue line here.
Now, for the Hail Mary. Taking every three-team combo of these seven games. That's 35 bets paying 1.8 to 1. Counting on the teased pointspreads to carry me to a tsunami of win.
Oakland +8 at Kansas City
Buffalo +8.5 vs. Denver
Tennessee -1.5
Carolina -1.5
San Diego +8
Seattle +8.5 vs. San Francisco
Philadelphia +7.5 at Dallas
Tennessee -7.5 vs. Jacksonville: This Titans team, despite losing to the Colts last week, isn't bad at all. The Jaguars? Oh yeah, they're bad.
New England -9.5 vs. Miami: Patriots are hitting their stride.
Carolina -7.5 vs Tampa Bay: Bucs are playing out the string, Panthers are energized by their enormous (and enormously talented) young quarterback.
San Diego +3 at Detroit: I expect this game to be very close, so I want the points.
New Orleans -4 vs. Atlanta: Punishing a rogue line here.
Now, for the Hail Mary. Taking every three-team combo of these seven games. That's 35 bets paying 1.8 to 1. Counting on the teased pointspreads to carry me to a tsunami of win.
Oakland +8 at Kansas City
Buffalo +8.5 vs. Denver
Tennessee -1.5
Carolina -1.5
San Diego +8
Seattle +8.5 vs. San Francisco
Philadelphia +7.5 at Dallas
Sunday, December 18, 2011
NFL Week 15 Picks
Last week I was 2-2-1 on the straight picks, and finally hit a teaser. I am now 43-56, -9.5 units for the season. Trying to get back to even, though it is a long shot. No time for writeups today.
Washington at New York Giants over 46 points
New Orleans -7 at Minnesota
Seattle +4 at Chicago
New York Jets +3 at Philadelphia
Pittsburgh +3 at San Francisco
One teaser, here are its components:
New Orleans -1.5
New England -1.5 at Denver
New York Jets +8.5
Washington at New York Giants over 46 points
New Orleans -7 at Minnesota
Seattle +4 at Chicago
New York Jets +3 at Philadelphia
Pittsburgh +3 at San Francisco
One teaser, here are its components:
New Orleans -1.5
New England -1.5 at Denver
New York Jets +8.5
Sunday, December 11, 2011
NFL Week 14 Picks
First, the good news: my straight picks were 5-0 last week. The bad news is that only one of my five teaser legs hit, leaving me 5-4, +2.8 units for the week. For the season, I stand at 40-54, -11.3 units. I do not lack for bullets, so I will keep firing...but only one teaser this week.
Oakland at Green Bay over 50 points: I don't know if the Packers will cover their large spread this week, but they have been a good bet on the 'over' every week. I'm going to ride that horse.
New Orleans -3 at Tennessee: This is just the type of game the Saints no-show, sometimes. I'm figuring they will seize the opportunity to sew up their division.
New England -7.5 at Washington: I have to believe that Patriots are at least ten points better than the Redskins, even on the road.
San Francisco at Arizona under 40 points: I don't think Arizona can get to 20 here, and I don't think the Niners can get much past that either.
Buffalo at San Diego over 47.5 points: The Bills are pretty decent on offense, not very good on defense. Likewise for the Chargers. The weather, of course, will not be an impediment. This feels like a 34-31 type game.
Here's my teaser legs for the week. One loss if any of them lose, 1.8 units if they all win.
Houston +8.5 at Cincinnati
New England -1.5
Carolina +8.5 vs. Atlanta
Oakland at Green Bay over 50 points: I don't know if the Packers will cover their large spread this week, but they have been a good bet on the 'over' every week. I'm going to ride that horse.
New Orleans -3 at Tennessee: This is just the type of game the Saints no-show, sometimes. I'm figuring they will seize the opportunity to sew up their division.
New England -7.5 at Washington: I have to believe that Patriots are at least ten points better than the Redskins, even on the road.
San Francisco at Arizona under 40 points: I don't think Arizona can get to 20 here, and I don't think the Niners can get much past that either.
Buffalo at San Diego over 47.5 points: The Bills are pretty decent on offense, not very good on defense. Likewise for the Chargers. The weather, of course, will not be an impediment. This feels like a 34-31 type game.
Here's my teaser legs for the week. One loss if any of them lose, 1.8 units if they all win.
Houston +8.5 at Cincinnati
New England -1.5
Carolina +8.5 vs. Atlanta
Saturday, December 03, 2011
NFL Week 13 Picks
Missed on my Hail Mary last week, so I am now 35-50, -14.1 units for the season. There is no quit in me, so I have four games where I think the wrong team is favored, plus one totals pick. Oh, and another Hail Mary. It's the only way to get out of the hole. Let's get to it.
Tennessee +2 at Buffalo: The Bills certainly have the look of a team that has packed it in. The Titans are hardly world-beaters but are giving good effort to their remote playoff chances.
Houston +3 vs. Atlanta: Counting on a third-string quarterback seems risky, but all T. J. Yates has to do is hand the ball to the league's best rushing attack, and let their vastly-improved defense do its thing. The Falcons are ripe for a letdown in this spot, on the road and out of conference.
Carolina +3 at Tampa Bay: The Panthers are the better team, getting points. QB Cam Newton is looking like the second coming of Daunte Culpepper, minus the prostitute-littered boating issues.
Denver +2 at Minnesota: What everybody has missed during The Ascension of Tebow is that Denver Coach John Fox knows how to put together a defense. That defense has allowed an option-based offense to work in the short term. I don't know how Saint Timmy will pull this one out, but I'm getting tired of being wrong...in the short term.
Green Bay at New York Giants over 52.5 points: The weather won't be horrible, so the Packers offense cannot be stopped. Giants QB Eli Manning is capable of big days too, and will need one to hang around in this one. I see both teams going up and down the field.
And now, this week's Hail Mary. I am taking every four-team combination of these five teasers. That's five separate bets that each pay 3-1. Here's the teaser legs:
Tennessee +7.5
Chicago -1.5 vs Kansas City
Washington +8.5 vs. New York Jets
Houston +8.5
Denver +7.5
Tennessee +2 at Buffalo: The Bills certainly have the look of a team that has packed it in. The Titans are hardly world-beaters but are giving good effort to their remote playoff chances.
Houston +3 vs. Atlanta: Counting on a third-string quarterback seems risky, but all T. J. Yates has to do is hand the ball to the league's best rushing attack, and let their vastly-improved defense do its thing. The Falcons are ripe for a letdown in this spot, on the road and out of conference.
Carolina +3 at Tampa Bay: The Panthers are the better team, getting points. QB Cam Newton is looking like the second coming of Daunte Culpepper, minus the prostitute-littered boating issues.
Denver +2 at Minnesota: What everybody has missed during The Ascension of Tebow is that Denver Coach John Fox knows how to put together a defense. That defense has allowed an option-based offense to work in the short term. I don't know how Saint Timmy will pull this one out, but I'm getting tired of being wrong...in the short term.
Green Bay at New York Giants over 52.5 points: The weather won't be horrible, so the Packers offense cannot be stopped. Giants QB Eli Manning is capable of big days too, and will need one to hang around in this one. I see both teams going up and down the field.
And now, this week's Hail Mary. I am taking every four-team combination of these five teasers. That's five separate bets that each pay 3-1. Here's the teaser legs:
Tennessee +7.5
Chicago -1.5 vs Kansas City
Washington +8.5 vs. New York Jets
Houston +8.5
Denver +7.5
