Saturday, December 31, 2011
NFL Week 17 Picks
Wow. Once again, I catch a huge break in Week 16 to get back on the right side of the ledger. Although my straight picks did not fare well, I only lost one teaser leg, so last week was 22-18, +19.7 units. This makes me 67-78, +7.9 units for the season.
This week is difficult, because motivations vary wildly. Some good teams are resting studs for the playoffs. Some decent teams must win to get in. Some bad teams are playing out the string. BUT: some bad teams are motivated to spoil others' seasons. Some decent teams will crack under the pressure (I'm looking at you, Tony Romo). Some good teams will want to make a statement. It can be tough to figure out.
I have four I like, and I like them so much that I'm going to parlay them. The spreads don't change, like they would in a teaser, but the payouts are higher. If any of them lose, I am out one unit, but if they all win, I get ten units. Just the type of risk I want to take while nursing a lead. I should note there are plenty of teaser options again this week, but I do not want to go back to the well. Here's the picks.
Detroit at Green Bay over 41 points: This total has gone way down as news has leaked of Packers starters playing few, if any, minutes. They needn't worry. This is a deep team. Also, the Lions' offense would probably hang 24 points on the starters; no telling what they may do to the backups.
Pittsburgh -6 at Cleveland: It makes absolutely no difference whether Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. They will smash the Browns because, well, that's what they do.
San Diego +3 at Oakland: Although the Raiders are the ones who can make the playoffs, the Chargers are the team that is playing better of late. And they are getting points, with a chance to wreck a hated rival.
Seattle +3 at Arizona: Wrong team favored here, as well.
This week is difficult, because motivations vary wildly. Some good teams are resting studs for the playoffs. Some decent teams must win to get in. Some bad teams are playing out the string. BUT: some bad teams are motivated to spoil others' seasons. Some decent teams will crack under the pressure (I'm looking at you, Tony Romo). Some good teams will want to make a statement. It can be tough to figure out.
I have four I like, and I like them so much that I'm going to parlay them. The spreads don't change, like they would in a teaser, but the payouts are higher. If any of them lose, I am out one unit, but if they all win, I get ten units. Just the type of risk I want to take while nursing a lead. I should note there are plenty of teaser options again this week, but I do not want to go back to the well. Here's the picks.
Detroit at Green Bay over 41 points: This total has gone way down as news has leaked of Packers starters playing few, if any, minutes. They needn't worry. This is a deep team. Also, the Lions' offense would probably hang 24 points on the starters; no telling what they may do to the backups.
Pittsburgh -6 at Cleveland: It makes absolutely no difference whether Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger plays or not. They will smash the Browns because, well, that's what they do.
San Diego +3 at Oakland: Although the Raiders are the ones who can make the playoffs, the Chargers are the team that is playing better of late. And they are getting points, with a chance to wreck a hated rival.
Seattle +3 at Arizona: Wrong team favored here, as well.
