Saturday, September 10, 2005
NFL Week 1 Picks
NOTE: For entertainment purposes only. The author has no desire to contribute to anyone else's degeneracy. If you place bets based on what you read in a blog, you need help. Caveat emptor.
I had a marginally successful season last year, making picks and emailing them to my father. That gave me the confidence (arrogance?) to publish them here this season. I will make five picks most weeks, sometimes more, sometimes less. Some will be against the pointspread, some will be on the totals. All numbers (the spreads and totals, to the uninitiated) will come from the Stardust casino's webpage at the time I make the picks. And one other piece of business: I don't think anyone should try to outguess the oddsmakers the first four weeks of the season, because I don't think anyone knows enough about the NFL in the first month. Nevertheless, I will take the plunge, hoping I don't dig myself a hole so deep I can't climb out.
Cincinnati -3.5 at Cleveland: The Bengals are a team on the rise. The Browns, at this point, are not. I will go against the old saw that states home underdogs are golden. It doesn't work when the underdog is, truly, a dog. In the same vein...
St. Louis -6 at San Francisco: This spread has increased this week. That makes me nervous, until I remember how much the Niners stink. The only way the Rams don't cover is if they fall asleep at the switch in the fourth quarter.
San Diego -4.5 vs Dallas: The Cowboys will be pretty decent...later in the season. LaDainian Tomlinson is great, right now. The Chargers suspended their excellent young tight end, Antonio Gates, apparently to show everyone who won their off-season pissing match. It won't matter Sunday.
Chicago +6 at Washington: Now here's an old theory I will use--in a low-scoring game, take the points. This is very likely to be the lowest-scoring game of the week, with two solid defenses going against two conservative (and inept) offenses. This game has 13-10 written all over it. For the final pick, let's go to the other end of the spectrum.
Green Bay at Detroit over 45.5 points: Both teams feature offenses filled with high-flying playmakers. Both defenses have shown little grasp of the concept of tackling in the preseason. This one looks to be a track meet.
I had a marginally successful season last year, making picks and emailing them to my father. That gave me the confidence (arrogance?) to publish them here this season. I will make five picks most weeks, sometimes more, sometimes less. Some will be against the pointspread, some will be on the totals. All numbers (the spreads and totals, to the uninitiated) will come from the Stardust casino's webpage at the time I make the picks. And one other piece of business: I don't think anyone should try to outguess the oddsmakers the first four weeks of the season, because I don't think anyone knows enough about the NFL in the first month. Nevertheless, I will take the plunge, hoping I don't dig myself a hole so deep I can't climb out.
Cincinnati -3.5 at Cleveland: The Bengals are a team on the rise. The Browns, at this point, are not. I will go against the old saw that states home underdogs are golden. It doesn't work when the underdog is, truly, a dog. In the same vein...
St. Louis -6 at San Francisco: This spread has increased this week. That makes me nervous, until I remember how much the Niners stink. The only way the Rams don't cover is if they fall asleep at the switch in the fourth quarter.
San Diego -4.5 vs Dallas: The Cowboys will be pretty decent...later in the season. LaDainian Tomlinson is great, right now. The Chargers suspended their excellent young tight end, Antonio Gates, apparently to show everyone who won their off-season pissing match. It won't matter Sunday.
Chicago +6 at Washington: Now here's an old theory I will use--in a low-scoring game, take the points. This is very likely to be the lowest-scoring game of the week, with two solid defenses going against two conservative (and inept) offenses. This game has 13-10 written all over it. For the final pick, let's go to the other end of the spectrum.
Green Bay at Detroit over 45.5 points: Both teams feature offenses filled with high-flying playmakers. Both defenses have shown little grasp of the concept of tackling in the preseason. This one looks to be a track meet.
