Saturday, December 10, 2005
NFL Week 14 Picks
A disastrous 1-5 week lowers my record to 32-41-3 for the season. I take some solace in the knowledge that many others seeking value in underdogs have also taken it in the shorts from the parade of favorites. How have the oddsmakers responded? By raising pointspreads...a lot. The average spread this week is a staggering 8.0625 points. How will I respond? By avoiding most of those bets and concentrating on totals.
Chicago +6.5 at Pittsburgh: I know what you're thinking. Does this guy even listen to his OWN advice? Well, I think this dog will hunt. These two outfits are going in opposite directions, and right now, I don't think Pittsburgh has the offense to be a 6.5 point favorite over anybody.
Carolina vs. Tampa Bay under 36 points: A tough divisional matchup between two teams with solid defenses and erratic, run-based offenses. Would anyone be surprised if this was under 26 points? I don't think so, which makes the under the play.
Cincinnati vs Cleveland over 43 points: Way, way over. The Bengals are good for 34 or so themselves, which puts relatively little pressure on the Browns to join the party. Reversing my above logic, 53 points would surprise no one, so take the over.
Dallas vs. Kansas City under 43.5 points: The Cowboys' offense is crumbling before our eyes, but the defense is still decent. The Chiefs aren't the same team on the road.
Tennessee vs. Houston over 44 points: The Texans burned me badly in the same situation last week, and here I am flogging them again. The difference this week is the much better offense they are facing.
Chicago +6.5 at Pittsburgh: I know what you're thinking. Does this guy even listen to his OWN advice? Well, I think this dog will hunt. These two outfits are going in opposite directions, and right now, I don't think Pittsburgh has the offense to be a 6.5 point favorite over anybody.
Carolina vs. Tampa Bay under 36 points: A tough divisional matchup between two teams with solid defenses and erratic, run-based offenses. Would anyone be surprised if this was under 26 points? I don't think so, which makes the under the play.
Cincinnati vs Cleveland over 43 points: Way, way over. The Bengals are good for 34 or so themselves, which puts relatively little pressure on the Browns to join the party. Reversing my above logic, 53 points would surprise no one, so take the over.
Dallas vs. Kansas City under 43.5 points: The Cowboys' offense is crumbling before our eyes, but the defense is still decent. The Chiefs aren't the same team on the road.
Tennessee vs. Houston over 44 points: The Texans burned me badly in the same situation last week, and here I am flogging them again. The difference this week is the much better offense they are facing.
