Saturday, September 30, 2006
Fear and Losing in Las Vegas/NFL Week 4 Picks
Things did not go as planned on my trip to Vegas, mainly due to my own stupidity. I started off with a four-team parlay on the Packers, Colts, Bengals and Bears. If all four had covered, it would have been a cool thousand bucks in my pocket. But the Bears did not, and I was down a hundy by 1 PM on Sunday. This started a death-spiral from which I was unable to recover. I was battered in the sports book, abused by the slots, garroted on the blackjack table and utterly eviscerated at video poker. The lone bright spot: I had the nuts, in the midst of all this losing, to bet a hundred on the Saints on Monday night. A good gambler must have the ability to keep firing, even when taking on water from all directions. A cynic might say I was chasing my losses, and just got lucky. I will leave that to the reader to decide.
My picks on this blog were 2-2-1 last week, making me 8-5-2 for the season. I offer a whopping eight picks this week. Enjoy; I probably won't make this many calls in a week again all year.
New York Jets +8.5 vs. Indianapolis: Clearly, the Colts are the better team. But the Jets appear to be better than anyone expected, and at home, I think they can stay within shouting distance. I also like the over 47 points total.
San Francisco +7 at Kansas City: OK, the Niners aren't very good. However, they do have their starting quarterback, which is more than the Chiefs can say. Like the Jets, I expect them to lose, but cover.
Arizona at Atlanta under 40.5 points: Last week, the Falcons were the victim of a perfect emotional storm. Back at home this week, they will fare better, particularly their defense. Moreover, their run-based offense somewhat limits their scoring upside.
Miami -4 at Houston: Normally, I like home underdogs. Just not when they are actual dogs. The Dolphins finally find their mojo.
New Orleans +7 at Carolina: This might be the week that Cinderella's carriage turns back into a pumpkin. The Panthers, a chic Super Bowl pick for many, have yet to hit their stride. Put these two contrary thoughts together and you get a squeaker for Carolina, which is fine for those who have the Saints and the points.
Detroit at St. Louis under 43.5 points: Both of these teams have defenses that are somewhat underrated. Both of these teams have offenses that are somewhat overrated. I'll take the under, thanks.
Cleveland -3 at Oakland: See my above comment about the Texans. The Browns are not very good, which makes them two orders of magnitude better than the Raiders.
My picks on this blog were 2-2-1 last week, making me 8-5-2 for the season. I offer a whopping eight picks this week. Enjoy; I probably won't make this many calls in a week again all year.
New York Jets +8.5 vs. Indianapolis: Clearly, the Colts are the better team. But the Jets appear to be better than anyone expected, and at home, I think they can stay within shouting distance. I also like the over 47 points total.
San Francisco +7 at Kansas City: OK, the Niners aren't very good. However, they do have their starting quarterback, which is more than the Chiefs can say. Like the Jets, I expect them to lose, but cover.
Arizona at Atlanta under 40.5 points: Last week, the Falcons were the victim of a perfect emotional storm. Back at home this week, they will fare better, particularly their defense. Moreover, their run-based offense somewhat limits their scoring upside.
Miami -4 at Houston: Normally, I like home underdogs. Just not when they are actual dogs. The Dolphins finally find their mojo.
New Orleans +7 at Carolina: This might be the week that Cinderella's carriage turns back into a pumpkin. The Panthers, a chic Super Bowl pick for many, have yet to hit their stride. Put these two contrary thoughts together and you get a squeaker for Carolina, which is fine for those who have the Saints and the points.
Detroit at St. Louis under 43.5 points: Both of these teams have defenses that are somewhat underrated. Both of these teams have offenses that are somewhat overrated. I'll take the under, thanks.
Cleveland -3 at Oakland: See my above comment about the Texans. The Browns are not very good, which makes them two orders of magnitude better than the Raiders.
