Sunday, September 17, 2006
NFL Week Two Picks
I am off to a good start, going 3-1-1 the first week. The second week is traditionally difficult, as the tendency is to overreact to the first week's results. For example, there are five double-digit spreads this week. I will challenge a couple of them.
Green Bay +3 vs. New Orleans: I must be out of my mind. The Packers were beyond dreadful at home, and the Saints won on the road. But this is a real value opportunity. The Saints won at Cleveland, not exactly a powerhouse themselves. A resurgent Ahman Green will balance out Reggie Bush, and Brett Favre (who is way overdue) will have a big week.
Baltimore -13 vs. Oakland: On the other hand, the Raiders really are as bad as they look. I seriously think they could get pushed around by their own shadows. What the Ravens will do to them is a felony in 37 states.
San Diego -12 vs. Tennessee: The Chargers put 27 points on the board last week with only 11 pass attempts. In their home opener, I think Coach Marty Schottenheimer will take the diapers off his new QB, Philip Rivers. Chargers in a romp.
Washington +7 at Dallas: This will be a physical, merciless struggle between divisional rivals, each desperate to avoid an 0-2 start. I want the points in this situation. I think the Cowboys will win with a late kick...but it would be fun to see Mount Parcells explode this early in the season.
Jacksonville +3 vs. Pittsburgh: It's tough to pick against the champs, who are among the few teams to understand that winning ugly is still winning. But the Jags are another such team, and Monday night appearances have been rare in Jacksonville. QB Byron Leftwich is large and slow, and he has a languid delivery; but he also possesses that ineffable quality of leadership, which makes his teammates want to run through walls for him.
Green Bay +3 vs. New Orleans: I must be out of my mind. The Packers were beyond dreadful at home, and the Saints won on the road. But this is a real value opportunity. The Saints won at Cleveland, not exactly a powerhouse themselves. A resurgent Ahman Green will balance out Reggie Bush, and Brett Favre (who is way overdue) will have a big week.
Baltimore -13 vs. Oakland: On the other hand, the Raiders really are as bad as they look. I seriously think they could get pushed around by their own shadows. What the Ravens will do to them is a felony in 37 states.
San Diego -12 vs. Tennessee: The Chargers put 27 points on the board last week with only 11 pass attempts. In their home opener, I think Coach Marty Schottenheimer will take the diapers off his new QB, Philip Rivers. Chargers in a romp.
Washington +7 at Dallas: This will be a physical, merciless struggle between divisional rivals, each desperate to avoid an 0-2 start. I want the points in this situation. I think the Cowboys will win with a late kick...but it would be fun to see Mount Parcells explode this early in the season.
Jacksonville +3 vs. Pittsburgh: It's tough to pick against the champs, who are among the few teams to understand that winning ugly is still winning. But the Jags are another such team, and Monday night appearances have been rare in Jacksonville. QB Byron Leftwich is large and slow, and he has a languid delivery; but he also possesses that ineffable quality of leadership, which makes his teammates want to run through walls for him.
