Sunday, December 10, 2006
NFL Week 14 Picks
Now that's more like it. A 4-1 week leaves me within striking distance of profitability, at 35-36-7 for the season. There are six home underdogs this week, which sounds good, but many of them are bad teams playing good teams. I will avoid most of them. Here's six more attempts to mount a late-season charge.
Jacksonville +1.5 vs. Indianapolis: The schizoid Jaguars always play well at home, and they always give the Colts fits. I love them here as a home underdog.
Minnesota at Detroit under 40 points: The Vikings' offense is in serious trouble, and Detroit has packed it in for the season. You couldn't pay me to watch this game, but I don't mind getting paid to bet the under.
Tampa +3.5 vs. Atlanta: The Bucs are not very good, but the Falcons have problems of their own. Historically, Tampa has done very well against Michael Vick. I was leery of this game, but the line went up, and my contrarian instincts kicked in.
Denver at San Diego over 41 points: I am scared of this 8-point spread, so I'm sticking to the total. New Broncos QB Jay Cutler will play better this week. He couldn't possibly play worse.
New Orleans at Dallas over 47.5 points: This 7-point spread also gives me the willies. The Cowboys' front seven is very good, but the secondary is a little dodgy. Both teams' offenses are quite strong, and they should sail past this number.
Chicago at St. Louis under 41.5 points: I have no idea why this number isn't in the low thirties. Bad QB play has made the Bears' fast offensive start a dim memory. Meanwhile, Rams QB Marc Bulger called out his teammates in public this week. I'm thinking 16-10, one way or another.
Jacksonville +1.5 vs. Indianapolis: The schizoid Jaguars always play well at home, and they always give the Colts fits. I love them here as a home underdog.
Minnesota at Detroit under 40 points: The Vikings' offense is in serious trouble, and Detroit has packed it in for the season. You couldn't pay me to watch this game, but I don't mind getting paid to bet the under.
Tampa +3.5 vs. Atlanta: The Bucs are not very good, but the Falcons have problems of their own. Historically, Tampa has done very well against Michael Vick. I was leery of this game, but the line went up, and my contrarian instincts kicked in.
Denver at San Diego over 41 points: I am scared of this 8-point spread, so I'm sticking to the total. New Broncos QB Jay Cutler will play better this week. He couldn't possibly play worse.
New Orleans at Dallas over 47.5 points: This 7-point spread also gives me the willies. The Cowboys' front seven is very good, but the secondary is a little dodgy. Both teams' offenses are quite strong, and they should sail past this number.
Chicago at St. Louis under 41.5 points: I have no idea why this number isn't in the low thirties. Bad QB play has made the Bears' fast offensive start a dim memory. Meanwhile, Rams QB Marc Bulger called out his teammates in public this week. I'm thinking 16-10, one way or another.
