Friday, December 22, 2006
NFL Week 16 Picks
A solid 4-2 week brings me to 42-41-7 for the year; respectability is now within reach. I need to finish with a rush. Here's a six-pack of holiday cheer...I hope.
Carolina +6.5 at Atlanta: The betting public is pounding the Falcons; one of the resources I consult indicates 77% of of the action on this game is on their side, even as the line has risen from 5.5, to 6, to 6.5. The public has, I'm sure, good reasons, including the fact that Atlanta is still in playoff contention. Also, the Panthers are circling the drain with a terrible backup quarterback. Take Carolina anyway, because--repeat after me--the public is almost always wrong.
New Orleans +3 at New York Giants: As best as I can determine, the Giants are favored only because they are at home. That will prove to be small comfort when their fans witness Saints QB Drew Brees utterly dismantling them. It's going to get loud, drunk and surly in the Meadowlands on Sunday.
Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh: Again, the home team is getting the love here, mainly because they are the home team. I will admit that the Steelers have looked like defending champs of late, but I would also like to point out that the Ravens have been playing all season like they did when they won the Super Bowl. I'll take the points in a low-scoring game, as usual.
Cincinnati +3 at Denver: The Bengals are not as bad as they looked against the Colts last week, and the Broncos are not world-beaters because they whipped the hapless Cardinals. Situations like this present considerable value for the underdog. I also like the under 44.5 points total.
Philadelphia +7 at Dallas: Eagles QB Jeff Garcia has been better than anyone expected. That should continue against a Cowboys secondary that frequently appears to be trying to learn how to rollerskate while drunk. Having said that, I would not be at all surprised if Dallas wins. I would be surprised if they won be more than a touchdown.
Carolina +6.5 at Atlanta: The betting public is pounding the Falcons; one of the resources I consult indicates 77% of of the action on this game is on their side, even as the line has risen from 5.5, to 6, to 6.5. The public has, I'm sure, good reasons, including the fact that Atlanta is still in playoff contention. Also, the Panthers are circling the drain with a terrible backup quarterback. Take Carolina anyway, because--repeat after me--the public is almost always wrong.
New Orleans +3 at New York Giants: As best as I can determine, the Giants are favored only because they are at home. That will prove to be small comfort when their fans witness Saints QB Drew Brees utterly dismantling them. It's going to get loud, drunk and surly in the Meadowlands on Sunday.
Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh: Again, the home team is getting the love here, mainly because they are the home team. I will admit that the Steelers have looked like defending champs of late, but I would also like to point out that the Ravens have been playing all season like they did when they won the Super Bowl. I'll take the points in a low-scoring game, as usual.
Cincinnati +3 at Denver: The Bengals are not as bad as they looked against the Colts last week, and the Broncos are not world-beaters because they whipped the hapless Cardinals. Situations like this present considerable value for the underdog. I also like the under 44.5 points total.
Philadelphia +7 at Dallas: Eagles QB Jeff Garcia has been better than anyone expected. That should continue against a Cowboys secondary that frequently appears to be trying to learn how to rollerskate while drunk. Having said that, I would not be at all surprised if Dallas wins. I would be surprised if they won be more than a touchdown.
