Sunday, September 30, 2007
NFL Week Four Picks
Last week my picks went 2-2-1, bringing my season record to 9-5, a still-excellent 64%.
As regular readers (and other degenerates) will remember, underdogs at home have long been a solid play. This week, there are a staggering NINE home dogs on the board, more than I have ever seen. We will be picking none of them; you see, most of them really suck.
Tampa Bay +3 at Carolina: The Bucs defense is inexplicably resurgent, and QB Jeff Garcia gets more production out of less physical talent than any player in the league. The Panthers have to go with David Carr at QB, and he is perennially gun-shy, twitchy and confused...a bad combination.
Dallas -13 vs. St. Louis: Normally, I would be allergic to laying this many points. But the Cowboys are on a roll, and the Rams are an injury-ravaged wreck of a team. There is a small chance of a backdoor cover in garbage time, but this really should be a laugher.
Oakland +4 at Miami: The Raiders are not as bad as their record. The Dolphins are every bit as bad as their record...maybe worse. Daunte Culpepper will start at QB for the Raiders, and he will be highly motivated to prove that the Fins made a mistake by letting him go.
Philadelphia -3 at New York Giants: This is the only one of the home dogs that I am actually picking against. Both of these teams got their first win last week, but the Eagles are the ones who have turned the corner. The uncertain injury status of Eagles RB Brian Westbrook is troubling, but I think the Eagles have enough to cover without him if necessary.
New England at Cincinnati over 53.5 points: This is a huge number to go over, but both teams have lethal offenses, and the Bengals have no defense at all. I am going to ignore my contrarian instinct this time.
As regular readers (and other degenerates) will remember, underdogs at home have long been a solid play. This week, there are a staggering NINE home dogs on the board, more than I have ever seen. We will be picking none of them; you see, most of them really suck.
Tampa Bay +3 at Carolina: The Bucs defense is inexplicably resurgent, and QB Jeff Garcia gets more production out of less physical talent than any player in the league. The Panthers have to go with David Carr at QB, and he is perennially gun-shy, twitchy and confused...a bad combination.
Dallas -13 vs. St. Louis: Normally, I would be allergic to laying this many points. But the Cowboys are on a roll, and the Rams are an injury-ravaged wreck of a team. There is a small chance of a backdoor cover in garbage time, but this really should be a laugher.
Oakland +4 at Miami: The Raiders are not as bad as their record. The Dolphins are every bit as bad as their record...maybe worse. Daunte Culpepper will start at QB for the Raiders, and he will be highly motivated to prove that the Fins made a mistake by letting him go.
Philadelphia -3 at New York Giants: This is the only one of the home dogs that I am actually picking against. Both of these teams got their first win last week, but the Eagles are the ones who have turned the corner. The uncertain injury status of Eagles RB Brian Westbrook is troubling, but I think the Eagles have enough to cover without him if necessary.
New England at Cincinnati over 53.5 points: This is a huge number to go over, but both teams have lethal offenses, and the Bengals have no defense at all. I am going to ignore my contrarian instinct this time.
