Sunday, October 21, 2007
NFL Week Seven Picks
My picks bounced back last week, going 4-2. Now at 18-12 (60%) for the season, I am brimming with confidence--usually a sign that things are about to take a nasty turn. Nevertheless, I will throw five more picks into the breach.
Tampa Bay +2.5 at Detroit: I think the wrong team is favored here. The Bucs have better balance, a much better defense, and don't turn the ball over. I think the degenerates know that Tampa has not played well indoors lately, but that is the kind of false trend that makes most bettors into losers long-term. The 'trend' is not nearly is important as one team being better than the other.
New England -16 at Miami: I will continue to ride the Patriots until they don't cover. The entire professional sports betting community is on the Dolphins, big. I understand why, because there is usually a lot of value (read: more points) on winless teams. It is not a deterrence, because the 'Fins are truly awful.
Kansas City +2.5 at Oakland: Another wrong-team-favored situation. Earlier this year, I wrote that the Chiefs were a Larry Johnson injury away from being the worst team in the league. Well, things move pretty fast around here--NFL stands for Not For Long. The Chiefs are half-decent now, and Priest Holmes has returned to back up LJ. The Raiders, on the other hand, are still a smoking hole where a once-proud franchise once stood.
Chicago at Philadelphia over 41.5 points: The Bears' defense is not what it once was, and the Eagles are erratic in this area as well. I think both teams get into the twenties, making the over the play.
Pittsburgh -3.5 at Denver: These two teams are in different weight classes. The Broncos' home-field advantage is in the past after getting crushed at home two weeks ago, and a bye week is not going to help enough to make a difference. It's the Steelers, early and often.
Tampa Bay +2.5 at Detroit: I think the wrong team is favored here. The Bucs have better balance, a much better defense, and don't turn the ball over. I think the degenerates know that Tampa has not played well indoors lately, but that is the kind of false trend that makes most bettors into losers long-term. The 'trend' is not nearly is important as one team being better than the other.
New England -16 at Miami: I will continue to ride the Patriots until they don't cover. The entire professional sports betting community is on the Dolphins, big. I understand why, because there is usually a lot of value (read: more points) on winless teams. It is not a deterrence, because the 'Fins are truly awful.
Kansas City +2.5 at Oakland: Another wrong-team-favored situation. Earlier this year, I wrote that the Chiefs were a Larry Johnson injury away from being the worst team in the league. Well, things move pretty fast around here--NFL stands for Not For Long. The Chiefs are half-decent now, and Priest Holmes has returned to back up LJ. The Raiders, on the other hand, are still a smoking hole where a once-proud franchise once stood.
Chicago at Philadelphia over 41.5 points: The Bears' defense is not what it once was, and the Eagles are erratic in this area as well. I think both teams get into the twenties, making the over the play.
Pittsburgh -3.5 at Denver: These two teams are in different weight classes. The Broncos' home-field advantage is in the past after getting crushed at home two weeks ago, and a bye week is not going to help enough to make a difference. It's the Steelers, early and often.
