Sunday, November 04, 2007

 

NFL Week Nine Picks

A 4-1 week raises my season record back to 60% at 24-16. However, I can't shake the feeling that I'm whistling past the graveyard here. There isn't much I have conviction about this week, but here goes anyway....

San Francisco +3.5 at Atlanta: This is a meat-and-potatoes play, taking the points in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. The Niners are decent on offense when healthy, and their defense is underrated.

Green Bay +2.5 at Kansas City: Many people are talking about the Chiefs' gaudy defensive statistics. Those people are not taking into account the fact that those stats were complied against some wretched offenses--Oakland, Houston, Minnesota, San Diego before they figured things out. The Pack's offense is much better, and their defense is actually their strength.

San Diego -7 at Minnesota: As mentioned above, the Chargers have gotten their train back on the tracks. All the Vikings have is superlative rookie Adrian Peterson, and a coach who won't use him enough.

Houston +3 at Oakland: This represents value; the Texans are getting a little extra because of how bad they looked last week. Trust me, the Raiders will make them look a lot better.

New England at Indianapolis over 56 points: This week's Game of the Millennium. It is a little incredible; the defending champions, improved from last year, undefeated, at home, a 5.5-point underdog. That's the case for the Colts. One the other hand, the Patriots are Team Terminator. I could have sworn I heard Pats Coach Bill Belichick say "Fock off, azhole" during a press conference. Bottom line, when you can make a case for both sides, you pass. I don't think either team can stop the other, which makes the over the play.

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