Friday, September 26, 2008

 

NFL Week Four Picks

Another 4-1 week brings my season record to 11-4, a sterling 73% clip. I think it is more likely that Sarah Palin will be tapped to lead Planned Parenthood than it is for me to continue my current pace. I will attempt to continue riding this hot streak.

Buffalo -8 at St. Louis: I'm also going to ride the Bills as far as they will take me. The Rams' implosion, incredibly, is accelerating, with the coach benching the quarterback and the stud running back calling the coach out in the media for the decision. If this one gets ugly, Rams Coach Scott Linehan will be fired on Monday.

Denver at Kansas City over 46.5 points total: I was somewhat leery of taking Denver to cover the nine-point spread, because the Chiefs have gone back to Damon Huard at QB (he's mediocre, which means he's by far their best option) and they have to play better sometime...don't they? I believe he can probably get more points out of his offense. Not enough to win, but enough to scare, which makes Denver -9 a bad play and makes the over an even better play.

San Diego at Oakland over 46 points total: There is a similar dynamic at play here; this might be a blowout, but it might not, so the over is the more rational play. The Chargers are favored by 7.5 points. If this one ends, say, 28-23, you could lose on the Bolts, but the over would still be good.

Tennessee -3 vs. Minnesota: These teams are very similar, with rugged defenses, strong running games, and caretakers at quarterback. The hamstring problems of Vikings RB Adrian Peterson makes the Titans just a little better on all three of those units, and they are at home against a dome team. It all adds up to more than a field goal to me.

Baltimore +7 at Pittsburgh: Like Buffalo, the Ravens are a team to ride until the oddsmakers catch up with them. It doesn't seem like they could keep up with the Steelers on the road on Monday night, but Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is hurt a lot more than the team is letting on. This will be a brutal, low-scoring game where you want the points.

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