Sunday, October 26, 2008
NFL Week Eight Picks
My picks went 2-3 last week, my first losing effort. The ugly prospect of regression to the mean is alive, and well, and--calling from inside my house! RUN!
OK, deep breath. It's just one week. However, the lines look just as tight this week as they did last. Here are a few angles I have found.
San Diego "at" New Orleans under 46 points total: The Saints are theoretically the home team, but this game is being played in London. Their weather stinks, as you may have heard. No one is forecasting the slog-fest they had last year, but combined with the disruption in schedule, it should be enough to make the under the play.
Buffalo -1 at Miami: The only reason this line isn't bigger is the Bills' historical struggles in Miami. But Dan Marino is retired and doing weight-loss commercials, and Buffalo continues to be under-respected.
Tampa Bay +1.5 at Dallas: The wrong team is favored here, as the Cowboys are in disarray. Injuries and suspensions have weakened team chemistry that was already suspect. They also addressed the problem of an aging diva receiver by trading for a younger diva receiver. Yeah, that'll work. Meanwhile, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia continues to win games with marginal physical talent.
New England -7 vs. St. Louis: The Patriots appear to have found their stride. The Rams beat two teams better than them at home, but now have to leave their dome, and stud RB Steven Jackson is out. Since he was their only legitimate chance to win, this could get ugly.
Cincinnati at Houston under 45 points total: Houston's offense is pretty good, and might get to the mid-30's. The problem is that the Bengals are unlikely to reach double digits. When Dallas and New England lost their QB's, they turned to an effective running game. The Bungles are turning to Cedric Benson, who didn't have a job two weeks ago. Ouch, quit it.
OK, deep breath. It's just one week. However, the lines look just as tight this week as they did last. Here are a few angles I have found.
San Diego "at" New Orleans under 46 points total: The Saints are theoretically the home team, but this game is being played in London. Their weather stinks, as you may have heard. No one is forecasting the slog-fest they had last year, but combined with the disruption in schedule, it should be enough to make the under the play.
Buffalo -1 at Miami: The only reason this line isn't bigger is the Bills' historical struggles in Miami. But Dan Marino is retired and doing weight-loss commercials, and Buffalo continues to be under-respected.
Tampa Bay +1.5 at Dallas: The wrong team is favored here, as the Cowboys are in disarray. Injuries and suspensions have weakened team chemistry that was already suspect. They also addressed the problem of an aging diva receiver by trading for a younger diva receiver. Yeah, that'll work. Meanwhile, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia continues to win games with marginal physical talent.
New England -7 vs. St. Louis: The Patriots appear to have found their stride. The Rams beat two teams better than them at home, but now have to leave their dome, and stud RB Steven Jackson is out. Since he was their only legitimate chance to win, this could get ugly.
Cincinnati at Houston under 45 points total: Houston's offense is pretty good, and might get to the mid-30's. The problem is that the Bengals are unlikely to reach double digits. When Dallas and New England lost their QB's, they turned to an effective running game. The Bungles are turning to Cedric Benson, who didn't have a job two weeks ago. Ouch, quit it.
