Sunday, October 05, 2008
NFL Week Five Picks
A 4-0-1 mark last week raises my season record to 15-4.(We won't be considering the ties; in a casino, you get your money back, so it's like they never happened.) This is now the mother of all hot streaks--shameless touts invent such records. The lines this week look like a minefield to me, but I'll try to tiptoe through it.
Denver -3 vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs do not travel well. The Broncos' defense is not very good, but Tampa QB Brian Griese is not particularly well-suited to exploit it. Tampa's defense is good, but Denver QB Jay Cutler is well-suited to exploit it.
Arizona -1 vs. Buffalo: Wait a minute. The Cardinals, riddled by 206-year-old Brett Favre last week, are favored against the up-and-coming Bills? What does Vegas know that we don't? I'll let you in on the secret: there is a decided disadvantage for a team coming into a building they've never played in before. The Steelers, a better team, lost there last year. The Cards stadium, now two years old, still hasn't hosted many of the AFC teams. Also, the Bills are overdue for a letdown, and an out-of-conference game, on the road, in a new building, is the perfect place for one.
Indianapolis -3 at Houston: The Texans will be emotionally sky-high, finally getting their home opener after Hurricane Ike ripped parts of the roof from their stadium. It will wear off quickly, though, when they realize that they still can't stop Peyton Manning. This one may be close for a while, but the Colts will pull away.
San Diego at Miami over 45 points: The Chargers' offense is suddenly lethal, and Miami's defense is not what it used to be. San Diego is also last in the league in pass offense, so while I'm not convinced they will cover the 6.5-point spread, I feel pretty good about the over.
New Orleans -3 vs. Minnesota: The Vikings, with their excellent running game and defense, would be dangerous with decent quarterback play. Alas, they have Gus Frerotte. Teams like the Saints, with great offenses and suspect defenses, are much better off at home.
Denver -3 vs. Tampa Bay: The Bucs do not travel well. The Broncos' defense is not very good, but Tampa QB Brian Griese is not particularly well-suited to exploit it. Tampa's defense is good, but Denver QB Jay Cutler is well-suited to exploit it.
Arizona -1 vs. Buffalo: Wait a minute. The Cardinals, riddled by 206-year-old Brett Favre last week, are favored against the up-and-coming Bills? What does Vegas know that we don't? I'll let you in on the secret: there is a decided disadvantage for a team coming into a building they've never played in before. The Steelers, a better team, lost there last year. The Cards stadium, now two years old, still hasn't hosted many of the AFC teams. Also, the Bills are overdue for a letdown, and an out-of-conference game, on the road, in a new building, is the perfect place for one.
Indianapolis -3 at Houston: The Texans will be emotionally sky-high, finally getting their home opener after Hurricane Ike ripped parts of the roof from their stadium. It will wear off quickly, though, when they realize that they still can't stop Peyton Manning. This one may be close for a while, but the Colts will pull away.
San Diego at Miami over 45 points: The Chargers' offense is suddenly lethal, and Miami's defense is not what it used to be. San Diego is also last in the league in pass offense, so while I'm not convinced they will cover the 6.5-point spread, I feel pretty good about the over.
New Orleans -3 vs. Minnesota: The Vikings, with their excellent running game and defense, would be dangerous with decent quarterback play. Alas, they have Gus Frerotte. Teams like the Saints, with great offenses and suspect defenses, are much better off at home.
