Sunday, October 19, 2008

 

NFL Week Seven Picks

My picks were 4-2 last weekend, which makes my season record 21-8. I am not brimming with confidence over this week's slate, but I will throw them out there and see what sticks.

Dallas at St. Louis over 43.5 points total: Losing Tony Romo doesn't hurt the Cowboys that much, considering they are going against the Rams. On the other hand, changing coaches has helped the Rams' overall outlook on life, if not their talent level. I have no opinion on the seven-point spread, but I like the over here.

New York Giants -10.5 vs San Francisco: If you take out the standard adjustment for home-field advantage, this line is telling us that the defending champs are only about a touchdown better than the Niners. Really? Lay the wood, because that's what the Giants are going to do.

New York Jets -3 at Oakland: There is an exception to the take-the-home-underdogs rule. The exception is when the home dog in question stinks of death. The only thing that makes me nervous is that an astonishing 97% of degenerate gamblers are on the Jets. Following the herd can lead you to the slaughterhouse; but I think this herd is correct. If the Raiders cover, they will probably score some points, so I'll hedge a little by taking the over 41 points total as well.

Denver +3 at New England: Picking against the Patriots, at home on Monday night, with their season in the balance. I must be nuts. But their backup QB has shown no indication that he can actually drive the car, and their defense has suddenly grown old and slow all at once. I will take the Broncos, a young team on the rise.

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