Sunday, September 13, 2009
NFL Week One Picks
Welcome to another season of barely educated guesses about NFL pointspreads. Last year's 62.4% win rate was a mark a professional would be proud of. However, even pros cannot maintain that pace indefinitely. I don't know how far I will slide, but past experience has taught me the value of a fast start. Here's a six-pack to open:
Minnesota -3 at Cleveland: The Browns are bad. The Vikings are not. Next....
Jacksonville +7.5 vs. Indianapolis: The Colts have a new head coach and no Marvin Harrison, though Peyton Manning has been retained as offensive coordinator. There will be a bit of an adjustment, and the Jags always play well against them. I'll take them at this price.
Green Bay -3.5 vs. Chicago: The biggest personnel move of the offseason may not have been a player. The Packers brought in Dom Capers as their defensive coordinator, and early returns have been impressive.
Cincinnati -4 vs. Denver: The Broncos might be truly awful this year, and the Bengals, though not world-beaters, look to be improved. I also want the over 42 points total.
Baltimore -9 vs. Kansas City: A combination of a rogue line (this game is -13 some places) and injury to the Chiefs' starting QB make this a play. This thing will get ugly by halftime.
Minnesota -3 at Cleveland: The Browns are bad. The Vikings are not. Next....
Jacksonville +7.5 vs. Indianapolis: The Colts have a new head coach and no Marvin Harrison, though Peyton Manning has been retained as offensive coordinator. There will be a bit of an adjustment, and the Jags always play well against them. I'll take them at this price.
Green Bay -3.5 vs. Chicago: The biggest personnel move of the offseason may not have been a player. The Packers brought in Dom Capers as their defensive coordinator, and early returns have been impressive.
Cincinnati -4 vs. Denver: The Broncos might be truly awful this year, and the Bengals, though not world-beaters, look to be improved. I also want the over 42 points total.
Baltimore -9 vs. Kansas City: A combination of a rogue line (this game is -13 some places) and injury to the Chiefs' starting QB make this a play. This thing will get ugly by halftime.
