Sunday, September 20, 2009
NFL Week Two Picks
Last week is a perfect example of how things can turn on a dime. A late touchdown by the Packers made me 4-2 for the week instead of 3-3.
I need a moment, here, for some housekeeping. One of the challenges of doing this blog is to make picks against lines that are available. That is, you can make picks against the early-week lines late in the week and have a sizable edge...but you're lying. This season, I'm using LVASports.com to survey lines available in Las Vegas sports books. I am trying to make my methodology as rigorous as possible, so that the results will be meaningful.
Having said all that, sometimes one book will have a "rogue" line totally different from everyone else. Professionals punish those lines, and so will I. In fact, all of today's picks are against rogue lines.
New York Jets +8 vs. New England: The Jets are getting three points elsewhere, so eight is a gift. I think the Pats will prevail, but not by that much.
Green Bay -6.5 vs. Cincinnati: This game is at nine points in many places. I am fortunate to find a line that moves through seven, which is naturally an important number. The Bengals were lucky to beat a poor team last week at home, and are traveling to a team that played poorly last week, but is much better.
Atlanta -3 vs. Carolina: The Panthers are probably not as bad as they looked last week, but they are not in the Falcons' weight class. They are in Atlanta's division, though, which means they get to lose to them twice.
Washington -7 vs. St. Louis: Only a degenerate gambler could care about this game. I care that the line is ten points most places...and that's about it.
Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona: The Jaguars are better than most people think, and should produce in their home opener against a Cardinals team that never plays well in early East Coast games. The Cards are also working diligently to prove the "Super Bowl loser sucks the next season" theory.
I need a moment, here, for some housekeeping. One of the challenges of doing this blog is to make picks against lines that are available. That is, you can make picks against the early-week lines late in the week and have a sizable edge...but you're lying. This season, I'm using LVASports.com to survey lines available in Las Vegas sports books. I am trying to make my methodology as rigorous as possible, so that the results will be meaningful.
Having said all that, sometimes one book will have a "rogue" line totally different from everyone else. Professionals punish those lines, and so will I. In fact, all of today's picks are against rogue lines.
New York Jets +8 vs. New England: The Jets are getting three points elsewhere, so eight is a gift. I think the Pats will prevail, but not by that much.
Green Bay -6.5 vs. Cincinnati: This game is at nine points in many places. I am fortunate to find a line that moves through seven, which is naturally an important number. The Bengals were lucky to beat a poor team last week at home, and are traveling to a team that played poorly last week, but is much better.
Atlanta -3 vs. Carolina: The Panthers are probably not as bad as they looked last week, but they are not in the Falcons' weight class. They are in Atlanta's division, though, which means they get to lose to them twice.
Washington -7 vs. St. Louis: Only a degenerate gambler could care about this game. I care that the line is ten points most places...and that's about it.
Jacksonville -3 vs. Arizona: The Jaguars are better than most people think, and should produce in their home opener against a Cardinals team that never plays well in early East Coast games. The Cards are also working diligently to prove the "Super Bowl loser sucks the next season" theory.
