Sunday, October 11, 2009
NFL Week Five Picks
My 2-3 performance last week makes my season record 11-10, which is dead even for a degenerate gambler. I have not gotten a fast start, and my chances of having a good season have dimmed considerably. Win or lose, I will keep plugging away.
Cincinnati at Baltimore over 41.5 points: These teams have had track meet-type games in the past. I think that will continue today, although the Bengals' defense has improved and no one really expects it.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia over 41 points: I don't think the Bucs will have to contribute very much to this total, as the Eagles (welcoming back their QB) might make it on their own.
Minnesota -10 at St. Louis: I am violating all my own rules here. The Rams are huge home underdogs, and I usually pile on those. This is also a 'sandwich game' for the Vikings, coming after the big matchup with the Packers and before a meeting with Baltimore. Third, the Vikes played on Monday night and are on the road the next Sunday. So why would I do this? Because those rules apply to professional teams, and I'm not sure the Rams qualify.
Houston +6.5 at Arizona: There is little reason to think the Texans will win this game. But their offense can gain yards and score points in big chunks, and I think they get a late cover.
Jacksonville +1.5 at Seattle: I think the Jags are actually the better team here, and if they can overcome the Seahawks' large home-field advantage by running the ball, I believe they will win this game outright.
Cincinnati at Baltimore over 41.5 points: These teams have had track meet-type games in the past. I think that will continue today, although the Bengals' defense has improved and no one really expects it.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia over 41 points: I don't think the Bucs will have to contribute very much to this total, as the Eagles (welcoming back their QB) might make it on their own.
Minnesota -10 at St. Louis: I am violating all my own rules here. The Rams are huge home underdogs, and I usually pile on those. This is also a 'sandwich game' for the Vikings, coming after the big matchup with the Packers and before a meeting with Baltimore. Third, the Vikes played on Monday night and are on the road the next Sunday. So why would I do this? Because those rules apply to professional teams, and I'm not sure the Rams qualify.
Houston +6.5 at Arizona: There is little reason to think the Texans will win this game. But their offense can gain yards and score points in big chunks, and I think they get a late cover.
Jacksonville +1.5 at Seattle: I think the Jags are actually the better team here, and if they can overcome the Seahawks' large home-field advantage by running the ball, I believe they will win this game outright.
