Friday, December 24, 2010
NFL Week 16 Picks
My picks went 3-3 last week, making me 44-53 for the season. To this point, you could have made money just picking against me like George Costanza. This stinks. So I have decided to start Operation Blaze of Glory a week early.
A little degenerate exposition: teasers are parlayed bets with multiple "legs," or sub-bets. Parlays pay greater odds, but you have to win every bet to cash your ticket. The twist on teasers is that you get to adjust the pointspread on each bet.
For example, St. Louis is currently a 2.5-point favorite (-2.5) in their game against San Francisco. The most common teaser is six points, though others are available. You could use STL +3.5 or SF +8.5 as a teaser leg, since both are six points from the current line.
OK, stay with me. There are seven games which meet my standards for teasers this week. I am making five-team teasers, which pay 5-1, on every possible combination. The math for that is beyond the scope of this blog (and, indeed, my brain); but Google is your friend. There are 21 different combinations, so I am making 21 different bets that each pay 5-1.
If I make the correct spread-adjusted call on all seven games, it's Fat City. If I am wrong on one, I'll be lucky to break even. Any more than that and it's a bloodbath. It's called Operation Blaze of Glory for a reason. Below are the picks.
San Francisco +8.5 at St. Louis
New England -1.5 at Buffalo
New York Jets +7.5 at Chicago
Oakland +8.5 vs. Indianapolis
Denver +8.5 vs. Houston
San Diego -1.5 at Cincinnati
New Orleans +8.5 at Atlanta
A little degenerate exposition: teasers are parlayed bets with multiple "legs," or sub-bets. Parlays pay greater odds, but you have to win every bet to cash your ticket. The twist on teasers is that you get to adjust the pointspread on each bet.
For example, St. Louis is currently a 2.5-point favorite (-2.5) in their game against San Francisco. The most common teaser is six points, though others are available. You could use STL +3.5 or SF +8.5 as a teaser leg, since both are six points from the current line.
OK, stay with me. There are seven games which meet my standards for teasers this week. I am making five-team teasers, which pay 5-1, on every possible combination. The math for that is beyond the scope of this blog (and, indeed, my brain); but Google is your friend. There are 21 different combinations, so I am making 21 different bets that each pay 5-1.
If I make the correct spread-adjusted call on all seven games, it's Fat City. If I am wrong on one, I'll be lucky to break even. Any more than that and it's a bloodbath. It's called Operation Blaze of Glory for a reason. Below are the picks.
San Francisco +8.5 at St. Louis
New England -1.5 at Buffalo
New York Jets +7.5 at Chicago
Oakland +8.5 vs. Indianapolis
Denver +8.5 vs. Houston
San Diego -1.5 at Cincinnati
New Orleans +8.5 at Atlanta
