Saturday, September 24, 2011
NFL Week Three Picks
Ouch...that's gonna leave a mark. Specifically, a 1-5-1 mark last week, which makes my season record 4-7. It will probably take a couple of good weeks to make up for that. Time to shrug it off and make some picks.
Buffalo +9 vs. New England: The Patriots have beaten the Bills 15 straight times. Not a typo, fifteen straight times. Truth be told, they will probably do it again, but this Buffalo team is different. Despite poor management and coaching, a bunch of late-round picks and undrafted free agents have turned out to be pretty good NFL players. This means they will hang with the Pats and only lose by three or four. Because of this, I also like the over 53.5 points total, though I could have done better earlier in the week.
Detroit -3 at Minnesota: Another long streak here--the Lions haven't been a road favorite in a division game since the first Clinton administration. But the fact is that they should be an even bigger favorite. Adrian Peterson is a superlative player, but he cannot do it alone. Donovan McNabb is starting to remember how to play quarterback, but a visit by the Lions' ferocious pass rush is a prescription for regression.
San Diego -14 vs Kansas City: Seems foolhardy to lay this many points in any NFL game. However, the important consideration is that the Chiefs are an NFL team in name only. The reality is they are a smoking hole where, just last season, a division champion stood. The Chargers are steamed after getting worked by the Patriots (yet again) last week. This should get quite ugly.
Washington +6.5 at Dallas: Even if their injured players are fine...even at home on a Monday night...I just don't think these Cowboys are a touchdown better than the Redskins. These games are often rough, bare-knuckled affairs that tend to be close. I would take the points in this situation without even knowing which one is favored. Plus, Dallas is one Tony Romo hard landing from having to put the 206-year-old Jon Kitna back out there. That would end badly indeed.
Buffalo +9 vs. New England: The Patriots have beaten the Bills 15 straight times. Not a typo, fifteen straight times. Truth be told, they will probably do it again, but this Buffalo team is different. Despite poor management and coaching, a bunch of late-round picks and undrafted free agents have turned out to be pretty good NFL players. This means they will hang with the Pats and only lose by three or four. Because of this, I also like the over 53.5 points total, though I could have done better earlier in the week.
Detroit -3 at Minnesota: Another long streak here--the Lions haven't been a road favorite in a division game since the first Clinton administration. But the fact is that they should be an even bigger favorite. Adrian Peterson is a superlative player, but he cannot do it alone. Donovan McNabb is starting to remember how to play quarterback, but a visit by the Lions' ferocious pass rush is a prescription for regression.
San Diego -14 vs Kansas City: Seems foolhardy to lay this many points in any NFL game. However, the important consideration is that the Chiefs are an NFL team in name only. The reality is they are a smoking hole where, just last season, a division champion stood. The Chargers are steamed after getting worked by the Patriots (yet again) last week. This should get quite ugly.
Washington +6.5 at Dallas: Even if their injured players are fine...even at home on a Monday night...I just don't think these Cowboys are a touchdown better than the Redskins. These games are often rough, bare-knuckled affairs that tend to be close. I would take the points in this situation without even knowing which one is favored. Plus, Dallas is one Tony Romo hard landing from having to put the 206-year-old Jon Kitna back out there. That would end badly indeed.
