Saturday, October 08, 2011
NFL Week Five Picks
Merde. It appears I cannot stand success. A 1-4 week lowers me to 8-12, -5.2 units for the season. Last season, a late, desperate, exotic wager saved my bacon. I'm not going to wait as long this year. I'll make my regular picks, then lay out an approach used by the pros to increase their consistency. Let's get started.
Buffalo +3 vs. Philadelphia: The conventional wisdom is that this is the week the Eagles break out of their funk. I don't think so. The Bills are playing better football, are at home, and are getting points. Sign me up for that combination every time; I'll be all right.
Cincinnati +2.5 at Jacksonville: The Jaguars showed signs of life last week, but the better team is still getting points here. Not a ton better, mind you. But they run the ball and stop the run, and you can win on the road like that.
Tampa Bay +3 at San Francisco: The 49ers seem to have found, in Jim Harbaugh, a coach who can bring them all the way back. It is decidedly not an overnight process, though. The spread would indicate these teams would be an even proposition at a neutral site, and I'm not buying that. Win this game, Frisco, and I might start believing in you.
New York Jets at New England over 49 points: I don't know how I feel about the outcome of this game, given the touchdown-plus spread the Patriots have to cover. Every scenario I imagine, however, has lots of points scored. The Pats have figured out a way to light up everybody, and their defense has real issues. They are on over watch until further notice.
San Diego -4 vs. Denver: The Chargers have established a nasty habit of sluggish early-season play. Though not completely cured, they have fared slightly better this year. It should also be noted that the Broncos stink on ice. I might be nervous about this one early, but I expect the Bolts to walk away in the second half.
OK, here's where things get degenerate. I'm going to play a bunch of "teasers" or adjusted-line bets. In each case, the spread has been teased six points one way or the other. These bets are played in bunches, and the payoffs are also adjusted. In short, I will be playing every three-team combo of the following five games. There are ten possible combinations, so there will be ten wagers that each pay 1.8 to 1. Don't worry, I'll keep all the math straight. Here's the teaser legs.
Kansas City +8 at Indianapolis
Arizona +8.5 at Minnesota
Buffalo +8.5 vs. Philadelphia
Cincinnati +8.5 at Jacksonville
New England -2 vs. New York Jets
Buffalo +3 vs. Philadelphia: The conventional wisdom is that this is the week the Eagles break out of their funk. I don't think so. The Bills are playing better football, are at home, and are getting points. Sign me up for that combination every time; I'll be all right.
Cincinnati +2.5 at Jacksonville: The Jaguars showed signs of life last week, but the better team is still getting points here. Not a ton better, mind you. But they run the ball and stop the run, and you can win on the road like that.
Tampa Bay +3 at San Francisco: The 49ers seem to have found, in Jim Harbaugh, a coach who can bring them all the way back. It is decidedly not an overnight process, though. The spread would indicate these teams would be an even proposition at a neutral site, and I'm not buying that. Win this game, Frisco, and I might start believing in you.
New York Jets at New England over 49 points: I don't know how I feel about the outcome of this game, given the touchdown-plus spread the Patriots have to cover. Every scenario I imagine, however, has lots of points scored. The Pats have figured out a way to light up everybody, and their defense has real issues. They are on over watch until further notice.
San Diego -4 vs. Denver: The Chargers have established a nasty habit of sluggish early-season play. Though not completely cured, they have fared slightly better this year. It should also be noted that the Broncos stink on ice. I might be nervous about this one early, but I expect the Bolts to walk away in the second half.
OK, here's where things get degenerate. I'm going to play a bunch of "teasers" or adjusted-line bets. In each case, the spread has been teased six points one way or the other. These bets are played in bunches, and the payoffs are also adjusted. In short, I will be playing every three-team combo of the following five games. There are ten possible combinations, so there will be ten wagers that each pay 1.8 to 1. Don't worry, I'll keep all the math straight. Here's the teaser legs.
Kansas City +8 at Indianapolis
Arizona +8.5 at Minnesota
Buffalo +8.5 vs. Philadelphia
Cincinnati +8.5 at Jacksonville
New England -2 vs. New York Jets
