Saturday, October 01, 2011
NFL Week Four Picks
A 3-1-1 week moves me to 7-8 for the season. One more good week, and I can dial back the self-loathing a bit. Let's see what we can get done.
Detroit +2.5 at Dallas: The Lions have been a cover machine for some time now. The betting market cannot seem to catch up to their improvement on both sides of the ball. While we're at it...Tony Romo's ribcage, meet Ndamukong Suh. I can't look.
St. Louis +3 vs. Washington: There isn't a lot of rational thought behind this one; the Redskins are, in fact, the better team. My gut is telling me the Rams know their season is over if they lose this and fall to 0-4, whereas the Skins will just be 2-2. My gut knows things.
Tennessee at Cleveland under 39 points: The Browns have moved the ball but have had troubles punching it in, while the Titans will struggle to be as efficient as before their best receiver blew up his knee. I think both of these squads getting to 20 points is a little too much.
Chicago -6.5 vs.. Carolina: This Bears team is not happy about losing at home to the hated Packers, and will take it out on the Panthers, who are clearly improved, but not yet ready to beat good teams on the road. They may hang early, but should lose by a touchdown or more.
New York Jets at Baltimore under 44 points: These teams' defenses have not completely lived up to their advance billing. Their offenses have been erratic as well, making this number too generous by half. I think 16-13 or so is likely.
Detroit +2.5 at Dallas: The Lions have been a cover machine for some time now. The betting market cannot seem to catch up to their improvement on both sides of the ball. While we're at it...Tony Romo's ribcage, meet Ndamukong Suh. I can't look.
St. Louis +3 vs. Washington: There isn't a lot of rational thought behind this one; the Redskins are, in fact, the better team. My gut is telling me the Rams know their season is over if they lose this and fall to 0-4, whereas the Skins will just be 2-2. My gut knows things.
Tennessee at Cleveland under 39 points: The Browns have moved the ball but have had troubles punching it in, while the Titans will struggle to be as efficient as before their best receiver blew up his knee. I think both of these squads getting to 20 points is a little too much.
Chicago -6.5 vs.. Carolina: This Bears team is not happy about losing at home to the hated Packers, and will take it out on the Panthers, who are clearly improved, but not yet ready to beat good teams on the road. They may hang early, but should lose by a touchdown or more.
New York Jets at Baltimore under 44 points: These teams' defenses have not completely lived up to their advance billing. Their offenses have been erratic as well, making this number too generous by half. I think 16-13 or so is likely.
