Saturday, October 22, 2011
NFL Week Seven Picks
After a 3-2 week, my picks are now 19-19 for the year, down 0.3 units. Perhaps this is the week I get to the plus side of the ledger. There was not a great deal out there that looked favorable, so I picked four, plus a four-team, six-point teaser that would pay 3-1. Let's get the money!
Chicago at Tampa Bay under 43.5 points: Tampa is the "home" team, but this game is being played in London. The only game played there that has gone over featured the Saints and Chargers, two offensive powerhouses. The Bears and Bucs are not up to that standard. Also, though the weather forecast is not the typical "dreary and pissy" at this time of year, conditions may still be difficult. The surface at Wembley Stadium stands up well to the stringy-haired Euros that normally scamper across it, but the industrial-sized Americans are another story.
Denver +1 at Miami: This line is moving fast Denver's way, but seriously? Miami is pitiful, so they decide to honor a Florida Gator championship game at halftime? With favorite son Tim Tebow starting for the other team? Someone in Dolphins management needs to put down the cocaine, get off South Beach, and start making some football decisions. Soon.
St. Louis at Dallas under 44 points: This is kind of a technical play. The Rams have been pretty reliable on the under, due to two things. One, their defense is mediocre, not horrible as many believe. Two, their offense has been horrible. Both teams would like to run the ball, which also keeps scoring down. The Rams run because Steven Jackson is far and away their best option. The Cowboys have a new toy (DeMarco Murray) they would like to try out; also, running the ball prevents inexplicable Tony Romo interceptions.
New Orleans -13.5 vs. Indianapolis: Yes, it is a lot of points. But the Colts are in a bad spot, in prime time against a Saints team angry with itself after losing last week. They will take it out on this week's opponent, and this could get ugly indeed.
Here is the four-teamer. If they all work, it's three wins, otherwise it's one loss.
Tampa Bay +7.5
Washington +8.5 at Carolina
Dallas -7.5
New Orleans -7.5
Chicago at Tampa Bay under 43.5 points: Tampa is the "home" team, but this game is being played in London. The only game played there that has gone over featured the Saints and Chargers, two offensive powerhouses. The Bears and Bucs are not up to that standard. Also, though the weather forecast is not the typical "dreary and pissy" at this time of year, conditions may still be difficult. The surface at Wembley Stadium stands up well to the stringy-haired Euros that normally scamper across it, but the industrial-sized Americans are another story.
Denver +1 at Miami: This line is moving fast Denver's way, but seriously? Miami is pitiful, so they decide to honor a Florida Gator championship game at halftime? With favorite son Tim Tebow starting for the other team? Someone in Dolphins management needs to put down the cocaine, get off South Beach, and start making some football decisions. Soon.
St. Louis at Dallas under 44 points: This is kind of a technical play. The Rams have been pretty reliable on the under, due to two things. One, their defense is mediocre, not horrible as many believe. Two, their offense has been horrible. Both teams would like to run the ball, which also keeps scoring down. The Rams run because Steven Jackson is far and away their best option. The Cowboys have a new toy (DeMarco Murray) they would like to try out; also, running the ball prevents inexplicable Tony Romo interceptions.
New Orleans -13.5 vs. Indianapolis: Yes, it is a lot of points. But the Colts are in a bad spot, in prime time against a Saints team angry with itself after losing last week. They will take it out on this week's opponent, and this could get ugly indeed.
Here is the four-teamer. If they all work, it's three wins, otherwise it's one loss.
Tampa Bay +7.5
Washington +8.5 at Carolina
Dallas -7.5
New Orleans -7.5
