Saturday, October 15, 2011
NFL Week Six Picks
That's better. My straight picks went 4-1 last week. I also hit on four of my five teaser legs. That means I went 4-6 on the ten teasers, but since they pay 1.8 to 1, I was up 1.2 units there. So for the season, we'll call it 16-17, down 1.1 units. Let's get over the hump here.
Green Bay -14 vs. St. Louis: Sounds nuts, right? The Rams are coming off a bye week determined to right their ship. The Packers could easily overlook this team and fail to cover the enormous spread. But the defending champs look unstoppable right now, and the defense could get well thanks to the Ram's relative lack of weaponry.
Buffalo +3.5 at New York Giants: This is a nervous pick, because there is just no telling which Giants team will show up. They can look like legit Super Bowl contenders one week, and just awful the next. I'm thinking a little bit of both, which should keep the Bills close.
Dallas at New England over 55 points: I was going to take the Patriots, but a bunch of money has come in late on the Cowboys, making me think I might have the wrong side. I can't really trust the Pokes either, so even though the number is huge, I think the over is actually the safe play.
New Orleans -4.5 at Tampa Bay: The Bucs were exposed last week as a team you can trust only against bad teams. The Saints most assuredly do not qualify. Since losing the season opener in Green Bay, they have been brutally efficient. I expect them to win by a touchdown or more.
New York Jets -6.5 vs. Miami: The Jets have been in a funk, but a Monday night game at home against the Dolphins is the prescription that cures all ills. The bye week will not help the Fins enough...or at all, to be honest. They are terrible, and this should be a blowout.
Green Bay -14 vs. St. Louis: Sounds nuts, right? The Rams are coming off a bye week determined to right their ship. The Packers could easily overlook this team and fail to cover the enormous spread. But the defending champs look unstoppable right now, and the defense could get well thanks to the Ram's relative lack of weaponry.
Buffalo +3.5 at New York Giants: This is a nervous pick, because there is just no telling which Giants team will show up. They can look like legit Super Bowl contenders one week, and just awful the next. I'm thinking a little bit of both, which should keep the Bills close.
Dallas at New England over 55 points: I was going to take the Patriots, but a bunch of money has come in late on the Cowboys, making me think I might have the wrong side. I can't really trust the Pokes either, so even though the number is huge, I think the over is actually the safe play.
New Orleans -4.5 at Tampa Bay: The Bucs were exposed last week as a team you can trust only against bad teams. The Saints most assuredly do not qualify. Since losing the season opener in Green Bay, they have been brutally efficient. I expect them to win by a touchdown or more.
New York Jets -6.5 vs. Miami: The Jets have been in a funk, but a Monday night game at home against the Dolphins is the prescription that cures all ills. The bye week will not help the Fins enough...or at all, to be honest. They are terrible, and this should be a blowout.
