Saturday, January 07, 2012
NFL Wild Card Picks
Last week's parlay was not successful, so I stand at 67-79, +6.9 units for the season. In previous seasons, I would have felt it necessary to pick all the playoff games. I now know that's as foolish as trying to pick all the regular-season games. I'm going to parlay the two dumb, obvious, square plays that half the morons in the sportsbook are playing. It's not a solid long-term strategy, but after poring over the numbers, I can't find anything else I like. Remember, this will pay 2.6 units if they both hit, and cost me one unit if either loses.
Detroit at New Orleans over 59 points: This appears to be the highest total ever posted for a playoff game in the NFL. It's still too low. Both of these teams feature explosive offenses and defenses that gamble quite a bit to cover their deficiencies. This is a prescription for a track meet. I'm seeing something like 41-31 here.
Pittsburgh at Denver under 34 points: Let's see. Both teams' defenses are solid. The Steelers have a quarterback with a gamey leg; his center and best running back are out. The Broncos have a quarterback from 1927. Because of the light air, the baseball team in Denver often has games that end in 16-9 or so. I think that might be the ceiling for these football teams.
Detroit at New Orleans over 59 points: This appears to be the highest total ever posted for a playoff game in the NFL. It's still too low. Both of these teams feature explosive offenses and defenses that gamble quite a bit to cover their deficiencies. This is a prescription for a track meet. I'm seeing something like 41-31 here.
Pittsburgh at Denver under 34 points: Let's see. Both teams' defenses are solid. The Steelers have a quarterback with a gamey leg; his center and best running back are out. The Broncos have a quarterback from 1927. Because of the light air, the baseball team in Denver often has games that end in 16-9 or so. I think that might be the ceiling for these football teams.
