Saturday, September 08, 2012
NFL Week One Picks
Welcome to another season of dubious prognostication. Let's get to the picks!
Philadelphia -8.5 at Cleveland: The prudent bettor should be reluctant to pick such a large favorite on the road. But there is a gulf of talent between these teams, and the Eagles are motivated to avoid their usual slow starts. The Browns struggle to put more than 17 points on the board, and the Eagles are probably good for 30.
Buffalo +3 at New York Jets: The wrong team is favored here. The Jets have a dysfunctional offense, and the Bills look to be better than they have been in years. Take the points and don't look back.
New England -4.5 at Tennessee: I don't feel great about this, because the home team with the better defense is getting points. But one book in Vegas is offering a line a full point lower than his peers, and per my usual policy, I am taking advantage.
Detroit -7.5 vs. St. Louis: I think Jeff Fisher will turn things around in St. Louis, but it won't happen Week One. The Lions are eager to show that they can run with the big dogs. I don't know that smashing the Rams will prove anything, but they will do it anyway.
Pittsburgh at Denver under 46 total points: This play is sort of mechanical, in that Pittsburgh has installed a new offense (and has had injuries and holdouts), and Denver has installed a newoffensive coordinator quarterback. They may be fine later, but I expect a few hiccups early.
I'm also going to expand the use of teasers this year. For this week, I will have all three two-team, six-point combinations of the following plays:
PHI -2.5
NO -1.5
DET -1.5
Don't worry, I'll keep score.
Philadelphia -8.5 at Cleveland: The prudent bettor should be reluctant to pick such a large favorite on the road. But there is a gulf of talent between these teams, and the Eagles are motivated to avoid their usual slow starts. The Browns struggle to put more than 17 points on the board, and the Eagles are probably good for 30.
Buffalo +3 at New York Jets: The wrong team is favored here. The Jets have a dysfunctional offense, and the Bills look to be better than they have been in years. Take the points and don't look back.
New England -4.5 at Tennessee: I don't feel great about this, because the home team with the better defense is getting points. But one book in Vegas is offering a line a full point lower than his peers, and per my usual policy, I am taking advantage.
Detroit -7.5 vs. St. Louis: I think Jeff Fisher will turn things around in St. Louis, but it won't happen Week One. The Lions are eager to show that they can run with the big dogs. I don't know that smashing the Rams will prove anything, but they will do it anyway.
Pittsburgh at Denver under 46 total points: This play is sort of mechanical, in that Pittsburgh has installed a new offense (and has had injuries and holdouts), and Denver has installed a new
I'm also going to expand the use of teasers this year. For this week, I will have all three two-team, six-point combinations of the following plays:
PHI -2.5
NO -1.5
DET -1.5
Don't worry, I'll keep score.
