Thursday, November 15, 2012
NFL Week 11 Picks
Last week's picks were a disastrous 2-8, -4.3 units. My season record is now 32-38, +1.4 units. My profitability hangs by a thread, but I plunge forward.
Philadelphia +3.5 at Washington: Seems insane to go with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road, doesn't it? QB aside, the Eagles are better than the Skins, and might even win this game outright...though I wouldn't bet on that.
Cleveland at Dallas under 44 points: The Browns don't score much. The Cowboys don't play particularly well at home. I think Dallas will win, but I can't lay the touchdown-plus spread. We'll just stick with the under.
Houston -14.5 vs. Jacksonville: Coming off a big road win, you could almost expect the Texas to let their guard down. But this is a big-boy team, and might polish off the Jags by halftime.
Cincinnati -3.5 at Kansas City: The Chiefs, historically, have been good home underdogs. I should mention they have never been as historically bad as they are now. They made a supreme effort on Monday night, and came up short. Also, the Bengals are better than their record.
Chicago at San Francisco under 38.5 points: The 49ers' QB will probably play after his concussion. The Bears' QB probably will not play after his. Either way, both coaching staffs are quite conservative, and have outstanding defenses. This looks like a 16-13 game, tops.
I also have one three-team, six-point teaser that pays 1.8 units if they all hit, or costs one unit if it doesn't.
Carolina +7.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Dallas -1.5
Denver -1.5 vs. San Diego
Philadelphia +3.5 at Washington: Seems insane to go with a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on the road, doesn't it? QB aside, the Eagles are better than the Skins, and might even win this game outright...though I wouldn't bet on that.
Cleveland at Dallas under 44 points: The Browns don't score much. The Cowboys don't play particularly well at home. I think Dallas will win, but I can't lay the touchdown-plus spread. We'll just stick with the under.
Houston -14.5 vs. Jacksonville: Coming off a big road win, you could almost expect the Texas to let their guard down. But this is a big-boy team, and might polish off the Jags by halftime.
Cincinnati -3.5 at Kansas City: The Chiefs, historically, have been good home underdogs. I should mention they have never been as historically bad as they are now. They made a supreme effort on Monday night, and came up short. Also, the Bengals are better than their record.
Chicago at San Francisco under 38.5 points: The 49ers' QB will probably play after his concussion. The Bears' QB probably will not play after his. Either way, both coaching staffs are quite conservative, and have outstanding defenses. This looks like a 16-13 game, tops.
I also have one three-team, six-point teaser that pays 1.8 units if they all hit, or costs one unit if it doesn't.
Carolina +7.5 vs. Tampa Bay
Dallas -1.5
Denver -1.5 vs. San Diego
