Saturday, November 16, 2013
NFL Week Eleven Picks
Last week's picks were 3-3, -0.2 units. This runs my season record to 23-29, +4.0 units. We're going to try something different this week, picking only overs (plus the obligatory teaser).
Detroit at Pittsburgh over 45.5 points: The hottest trend this season is for inter-conference matchups, which have gone over the total 60% of the time. The Lions are always an over waiting to happen, and the Steelers offense has shown signs of life lately.
Baltimore at Chicago over 41.5 points: See above. This line has moved down, likely due to weather. Here's the thing about bad weather: the offensive players know when they are going to change directions, and the defensive players don't. As a result, defenders fall down more. Touchdown!
Arizona at Jacksonville over 40 points: See also above. Admittedly, these offenses aren't great, but 40 is not a lot of points in today's NFL. An unwatchable 23-20 game suits me just fine.
Minnesota at Seattle over 45 points: The Vikings are not very good, but I suspect the Seahawks will do most of the heavy lifting here.
Finally, a five-team, six-point teaser, pays 4.5 to 1 if it hits:
New York Jets +7.5 at Buffalo
Pittsburgh +8.5
Miami +8 vs. San Diego
Arizona -2
Denver -1.5 vs. Kansas City
Detroit at Pittsburgh over 45.5 points: The hottest trend this season is for inter-conference matchups, which have gone over the total 60% of the time. The Lions are always an over waiting to happen, and the Steelers offense has shown signs of life lately.
Baltimore at Chicago over 41.5 points: See above. This line has moved down, likely due to weather. Here's the thing about bad weather: the offensive players know when they are going to change directions, and the defensive players don't. As a result, defenders fall down more. Touchdown!
Arizona at Jacksonville over 40 points: See also above. Admittedly, these offenses aren't great, but 40 is not a lot of points in today's NFL. An unwatchable 23-20 game suits me just fine.
Minnesota at Seattle over 45 points: The Vikings are not very good, but I suspect the Seahawks will do most of the heavy lifting here.
Finally, a five-team, six-point teaser, pays 4.5 to 1 if it hits:
New York Jets +7.5 at Buffalo
Pittsburgh +8.5
Miami +8 vs. San Diego
Arizona -2
Denver -1.5 vs. Kansas City
