Saturday, February 01, 2014
Super Bowl Proposition Blowout
Once again, it's time to wander through the staggering pile of proposition bets available on the Super Bowl. And once again, it's time for me to ignore the NFL's lawyers. Come and get me, suckers!
I went 1-1 on the conference championships, making my season record 42-47, +9.2 units. I'm going to risk just about all of my profits on props. All bets are for one unit unless otherwise noted.
Over 2.5 passers: This pays 2.4 to 1, which is nowhere near what it should pay. But I just can't back off it. If either QB gets hurt, even for one series, or one option pass gets called, or a fake punt, or the wildcat...there's a lot of ways to cash this one.
Broncos over 31.5 points: This is below their season average. I am well aware of how good the Seahawks defense can be, but it pays 2 to 1, and the weather won't be a problem. In the same vein....
Over 54.5 points total: This also pays 2 to 1, and 31-24 (or more) could happen. Similarly, over 61.5 total points pays 3.25 to 1, so put me down for that as well.
Peyton Manning rushing touchdown: This is unlikely, but pays 8 to 1, which I feel is fair odds.
The above props presume a high-scoring game. I'm hedging against that a little with the following bets. These three are betting 1.15 units to win 1.
Demaryius Thomas under 5.5 receptions
Wes Welker under 57.5 receiving yards
Andre Caldwell over 7.5 yards (OK, this isn't a hedge, but I like it a lot. Sue me.)
I went 1-1 on the conference championships, making my season record 42-47, +9.2 units. I'm going to risk just about all of my profits on props. All bets are for one unit unless otherwise noted.
Over 2.5 passers: This pays 2.4 to 1, which is nowhere near what it should pay. But I just can't back off it. If either QB gets hurt, even for one series, or one option pass gets called, or a fake punt, or the wildcat...there's a lot of ways to cash this one.
Broncos over 31.5 points: This is below their season average. I am well aware of how good the Seahawks defense can be, but it pays 2 to 1, and the weather won't be a problem. In the same vein....
Over 54.5 points total: This also pays 2 to 1, and 31-24 (or more) could happen. Similarly, over 61.5 total points pays 3.25 to 1, so put me down for that as well.
Peyton Manning rushing touchdown: This is unlikely, but pays 8 to 1, which I feel is fair odds.
The above props presume a high-scoring game. I'm hedging against that a little with the following bets. These three are betting 1.15 units to win 1.
Demaryius Thomas under 5.5 receptions
Wes Welker under 57.5 receiving yards
Andre Caldwell over 7.5 yards (OK, this isn't a hedge, but I like it a lot. Sue me.)
