Sunday, October 05, 2014
NFL Week Five Picks
Last week's picks were 1-2, -1.1 units. For the season, my record stands at 9-11, -1.6 units. This stinks. I have a blizzard of picks this week, mainly because I couldn't talk myself out of any of them.
Cleveland +2 at Tennessee: Pretty sure the wrong team is favored here. I know the Browns are on the road, but they're coming off a bye, and the Titans' home crowd doesn't scare anybody. Give me the better team and points every time.
Atlanta at New York Giants over 50 total points: The Falcons are always a good candidate for overs, as they have very good skill-position players, and very little defense. The Giants are just starting to click with a new offense, and this one should cash relatively early.
Pittsburgh -6 at Jacksonville: The Jags are wretched, and the Steelers are going to get well on them. They do have some defensive issues, though, so I also want the over 47 points total.
San Diego -6.5 vs. New York Jets: The Chargers have been one of the best teams in the league that no one talks about. The Jets have traditionally been their kryptonite, but their quarterback is a turnover machine.
Cincinnati even at New England: The Patriots are teetering on the brink of mediocrity, and the Bengals look like the most complete team in the league. This is usually where the Pats turn it around, but I think their slide is, well, permanent this time. Their window is slammed shut Sunday night.
Seattle at Washington over 45 points: The Seahawks are not quite as dominant on the road, and will give up some points. They'll score some, too. I think both teams cross 20 points, making the over the play.
And a three-team, six-point teaser, pays 1.6 units if it hits:
Chicago +8.5 at Carolina
Cleveland +8
Denver -1.5 vs. Denver
Cleveland +2 at Tennessee: Pretty sure the wrong team is favored here. I know the Browns are on the road, but they're coming off a bye, and the Titans' home crowd doesn't scare anybody. Give me the better team and points every time.
Atlanta at New York Giants over 50 total points: The Falcons are always a good candidate for overs, as they have very good skill-position players, and very little defense. The Giants are just starting to click with a new offense, and this one should cash relatively early.
Pittsburgh -6 at Jacksonville: The Jags are wretched, and the Steelers are going to get well on them. They do have some defensive issues, though, so I also want the over 47 points total.
San Diego -6.5 vs. New York Jets: The Chargers have been one of the best teams in the league that no one talks about. The Jets have traditionally been their kryptonite, but their quarterback is a turnover machine.
Cincinnati even at New England: The Patriots are teetering on the brink of mediocrity, and the Bengals look like the most complete team in the league. This is usually where the Pats turn it around, but I think their slide is, well, permanent this time. Their window is slammed shut Sunday night.
Seattle at Washington over 45 points: The Seahawks are not quite as dominant on the road, and will give up some points. They'll score some, too. I think both teams cross 20 points, making the over the play.
And a three-team, six-point teaser, pays 1.6 units if it hits:
Chicago +8.5 at Carolina
Cleveland +8
Denver -1.5 vs. Denver
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