Sunday, October 12, 2014

 

NFL Week Six Picks

Last week's picks were 5-3, +2.6 units. That pulled me out of the hole, now at 14-14, +0.7 units for the season. Now it's time to get ahead.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland over 47 points:  I almost took the Steelers +1.5 here, but I can't quite shake the feeling that the Browns might finally be a real team. Here's something real:  The Browns have been a consistent over, and that should continue.

Tennessee -4 vs. Jacksonville:  This would be an awful game to watch, but I don't have to put myself through that. The Titans are not good, and are using their backup QB. But the line moved three points in response to the starter's injury, and trust me, he wasn't worth that much. Also, the Jaguars are terrible.

Cincinnati -7 vs. Carolina:  I expect a big bounce back from the Bengals today. Teams that get embarrassed in prime time on the road are strong plays when they come home the next week.

San Diego -7 at Oakland:  The conventional wisdom is that a team playing at home, against a hated divisional rival, getting a full touchdown, is a strong play. However, that fails to take into account just how pathetic the Raiders are right now. The Chargers appear to be an elite team, and those teams stomp bad teams, no matter what.

New York Giants +3 at Philadelphia:  The better team is getting the points here. I'm not going to over-think this one.

Lastly, a five-team, six-point teaser, pays 4.5 units if it hits:

Pittsburgh +7.5

Detroit +8 at Minnesota

Buffalo +8.5 vs. New England

Seattle -2.5 vs. Dallas

New York Giants +8.5

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