Thursday, November 29, 2007


Thursday Night Special

Just a quick one for tonight, I couldn't resist.

Dallas vs. Green Bay over 51 points: I think this is a better play than either side. It's not that the defenses are bad; it's just that the offenses are so good. I don't know who will win this game, but the winner will score over 30, and the loser will get over 20.

Sunday, November 25, 2007


NFL Week Twelve Picks

I swept the board on Thanksgiving. Since I am determined to have a winning week, I am making only my two strongest picks today.

Tampa Bay -3 vs. Washington: Bucs QB Jeff Garcia continues to get production far beyond his talent level, and their defense has been rebuilt on the fly. The Redskins will have no answers.

New England vs. Philadelphia over 50 points: With an injured quarterback, I don't expect much out of the Eagles. I don't need it. The Pats are probably good for fifty by themselves.

Thursday, November 22, 2007


NFL Thanksgiving Picks

Disaster has struck. Last week's 1-5 nightmare has reduced my record to 28-27 for the year. That will not pay the rent, so I will keep firing. I'm laying the wood all over today.

Green Bay -3.5 at Detroit: This line should be bigger. What does Vegas know that I don't? Quite a bit, judging by the last few weeks, but I think the Lions have spent their fuel and are plunging toward mediocrity.

Dallas -14 vs. New York Jets: The Jets screwed up by beating Pittsburgh last week. They will now have the Cowboys' undivided attention.

Indianapolis -11.5 at Atlanta: The Colts' offense will get well this week. Playing the Falcons will do that for you.

Sunday, November 18, 2007


NFL Week Eleven Picks

Yikes. A 1-3-1 week lowers my season record to 27-22. I will counter with a six-pack of picks, but I feel I am running against the tide.

Dallas -10.5 vs. Washington: The Redskins, once contenders, have been exposed. They will now be stripped bare and defenestrated by a legitimate contender.

Houston vs. New Orleans over 47.5 points: Houston's offense is much improved by the return of stud WR Andre Johnson. Neither team plays much defense, so take the over.

New England -15.5 at Buffalo: In tough times, stick to what you know. I know the Patriots are just killing people.

Pittsburgh -9.5 vs. New York Jets: The Steelers are very tough at home, and routinely take care of their business against weak teams. The Jets are weak as a kitten.

Chicago +5.5 at Seattle: As usual, I like to take the points in a low-scoring game, with bad weather forecast in the Pacific Northwest. In fact, I will take the under 37.5 points total as well.

Sunday, November 11, 2007


NFL Week Ten Picks

A 2-3 week lowers my season record to 26-19. I haven't had two losing weeks in a row yet, and I don't intend to start now.

Detroit +1.5 at Arizona: The Lions have a ferocious pass rush of late, and Cardinals QB Kurt Warner has all the mobility of a highway billboard. The wrong team is favored, and this thing may be over by halftime.

Buffalo -3 at Miami: The winless team has to break through eventually...right? Um, no.

New Orleans -10.5 vs. St. Louis: See above.

Minnesota +6 at Green Bay: The Packers are getting a little too much love, and giving too many points. They have won a lot of games, but many of them were of the ugly variety. I'm thinking this one will be as well.

Cleveland +10 at Pittsburgh: Everybody is on the Steelers, which is why I have to take the Browns. I think their offense is potent enough to keep this competitive.

Sunday, November 04, 2007


NFL Week Nine Picks

A 4-1 week raises my season record back to 60% at 24-16. However, I can't shake the feeling that I'm whistling past the graveyard here. There isn't much I have conviction about this week, but here goes anyway....

San Francisco +3.5 at Atlanta: This is a meat-and-potatoes play, taking the points in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. The Niners are decent on offense when healthy, and their defense is underrated.

Green Bay +2.5 at Kansas City: Many people are talking about the Chiefs' gaudy defensive statistics. Those people are not taking into account the fact that those stats were complied against some wretched offenses--Oakland, Houston, Minnesota, San Diego before they figured things out. The Pack's offense is much better, and their defense is actually their strength.

San Diego -7 at Minnesota: As mentioned above, the Chargers have gotten their train back on the tracks. All the Vikings have is superlative rookie Adrian Peterson, and a coach who won't use him enough.

Houston +3 at Oakland: This represents value; the Texans are getting a little extra because of how bad they looked last week. Trust me, the Raiders will make them look a lot better.

New England at Indianapolis over 56 points: This week's Game of the Millennium. It is a little incredible; the defending champions, improved from last year, undefeated, at home, a 5.5-point underdog. That's the case for the Colts. One the other hand, the Patriots are Team Terminator. I could have sworn I heard Pats Coach Bill Belichick say "Fock off, azhole" during a press conference. Bottom line, when you can make a case for both sides, you pass. I don't think either team can stop the other, which makes the over the play.

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