Saturday, October 26, 2013


NFL Week Eight Picks

Things haven't gone well lately. Last week I went 2-1, -1.8 units. My season record stands at 14-21, +2.1 units. It's time to stop the bleeding.

Kansas City -7 vs. Cleveland:  The Chiefs' 2013 Bottom-Feeder Tour continues. The Browns will try a third quarterback this season. Although he has faced the Chiefs before, from his Raider days, there is no reason to think Jason Campbell will keep it close.

New England -6 vs. Miami:  Tom Brady is going to look like Tom Brady at some point this season. Right? Bueller?

Oakland +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh:  I wouldn't call the Raiders a good team, but they're scrappy, and the Steelers are far from themselves.

Washington at Denver over 58 points:  One decent offense, one great offense, two lousy defenses. Although the number is high, I think both teams are good for 30 points on each other.

Atlanta +2.5 at Arizona:  The Falcons are another team set to wake up from a season-long stupor. The Cards are the perfect opponent for that.

Lastly, a four-team, six-point teaser, pays 2.5 to 1:

Kansas City -1.5
Oakland +8.5
Atlanta +8.5
Green Bay -2.5 vs. Minnesota

Saturday, October 19, 2013


NFL Week Seven Picks

Well, I did say the trend was unsustainable. Last week, I was 2-4, -2.3 units. For the season, my record stands at 12-17, +3.9 units. Here are this week's picks.

Kansas City -6 vs. Houston:  The Texans are going to throw a quarterback named Case Keenum out there, making his first NFL start, in the league's loudest stadium, against a team that had TEN sacks last week. If the Chiefs don't score on defense, I will be shocked.

Chicago +1 at Washington:  Seriously? The Redskins should not be favored over average teams, and the Bears are at least one cut above that. Even on the road, they should win handily.

Dallas +3 at Philadelphia:  I think these teams are fairly evenly matched, so I'll happily take a field goal. I also suspect this game will resemble a track meet, so I will take the over 55 total points.

Indianapolis +250 over Denver (money line):  Yes, I think the Colts have a decent chance to win this game outright, so rather than take the 6.5 points offered on the spread, I'll take the 2.5 to 1 payday on the upset. The Broncos have looked impressive, but have played nobody.

And another five-team, six-point teaser, pays 4.5 to 1:

San Diego -1.5 at Jacksonville
Cincinnati +8.5 at Detroit
Miami -1.5 vs. Buffalo
Dallas +8.5
Baltimore +8 at Pittsburgh

Sunday, October 13, 2013


NFL Week Six Picks

Once again, a poor week of picking individual games was saved by hitting a teaser. For the week, I went 2-4, +1.1 units. My season record is 10-13, +6.2 units. This trend is unsustainable, but I must plunge forward.

Tampa Bay +3 vs. Philadelphia:  Even having money on it wouldn't get me to watch this game. Give me the points every time in ugly games with backup quarterbacks.

Jacksonville at Denver over 53 points:  All the talk has been about the titanic 27-point spread, but the real story to me is a total that, while high, is still achievable by one team. Also, both defenses have issues. When you throw in the extended garbage time there is likely to be today, and any total under 60 is just too low.

Dallas -5 vs. Washington:  I feel like the biggest square in the world, taking the nationally-popular Cowboys at home in prime time. It's a prescription for disaster. I just don't think the Redskins are very good.  In fact, just make me a total donkey and give me the over 52 points total as well.

Indianapolis -1 at San Diego:  This line is moving up, which tells me I'm on the right side and need to get in while I can.

And this week's teaser, pays 4.5 to 1:

Kansas City -2 vs. Oakland
Baltimore +8.5 vs. Green Bay
Cleveland +8.5 vs. Detroit
Houston -1.5 vs. St. Louis
New Orleans +8 at New England

Saturday, October 05, 2013


NFL Week Five Picks

First, a little housekeeping. The teasers I have played pay a half-unit less than I thought they did, so in the interest of total intellectual rigor, my season record now stands at 8-9, +5.1 units. Capiche?

Miami -2.5 vs. Baltimore:  When a team gets pasted on the road like the Dolphins did last week, they usually do whatever they need to do in front of their home fans.

Philadelphia +2 at New York Giants:  I strongly suspect the wrong team is favored here. The Eagles have issues, sure, but not as many as the Giants. Not by a long shot.

Carolina -2 at Arizona:  Last year, the Panthers would have figured out a way to lose this game. This year, they will figure out a way to win it.

Denver -7 at Dallas:  I don't think the Broncos are going undefeated or anything, but this is not the week the train goes off the tracks.

And once again, a six-point, five-team teaser; pays 4.5 to 1.

Baltimore +8.5
Indianapolis +8.5 vs. Seattle
Philadelphia +8
Arizona +8
Denver -2

Thursday, October 03, 2013


NFL Week 4 Thursday Pick

Buffalo at Cleveland under 41 points

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