Sunday, September 30, 2007


NFL Week Four Picks

Last week my picks went 2-2-1, bringing my season record to 9-5, a still-excellent 64%.

As regular readers (and other degenerates) will remember, underdogs at home have long been a solid play. This week, there are a staggering NINE home dogs on the board, more than I have ever seen. We will be picking none of them; you see, most of them really suck.

Tampa Bay +3 at Carolina: The Bucs defense is inexplicably resurgent, and QB Jeff Garcia gets more production out of less physical talent than any player in the league. The Panthers have to go with David Carr at QB, and he is perennially gun-shy, twitchy and confused...a bad combination.

Dallas -13 vs. St. Louis: Normally, I would be allergic to laying this many points. But the Cowboys are on a roll, and the Rams are an injury-ravaged wreck of a team. There is a small chance of a backdoor cover in garbage time, but this really should be a laugher.

Oakland +4 at Miami: The Raiders are not as bad as their record. The Dolphins are every bit as bad as their record...maybe worse. Daunte Culpepper will start at QB for the Raiders, and he will be highly motivated to prove that the Fins made a mistake by letting him go.

Philadelphia -3 at New York Giants: This is the only one of the home dogs that I am actually picking against. Both of these teams got their first win last week, but the Eagles are the ones who have turned the corner. The uncertain injury status of Eagles RB Brian Westbrook is troubling, but I think the Eagles have enough to cover without him if necessary.

New England at Cincinnati over 53.5 points: This is a huge number to go over, but both teams have lethal offenses, and the Bengals have no defense at all. I am going to ignore my contrarian instinct this time.

Sunday, September 23, 2007


NFL Week Three Picks

My picks went 3-2-1 last week, leaving me at 7-3 for the season. As a bookkeeping aside, we will be throwing out the pushes, as they have no effect.

Dallas +3 at Chicago: Tough game to call, due to the extreme volatility of Bears QB Rex Grossman. The guy can make a heroic throw on one play, then come back on the next and leave the entire stadium scratching their heads. I think he makes enough mistakes for the Cowboys to keep it close, or even win.

Indianapolis -6 at Houston: I think the Indy cover machine gets back on track this week. The Texans are missing stud WR Andre Johnson, and will not be able to keep up.

Detroit +6 at Philadelphia: The wrong team may be favored here. Usually, when this happens, it's just a point or two. Getting six points with this explosive offense against a nicked-up Eagle secondary is almost not fair. Philly is desperate...but not very good.

Washington -3.5 vs. New York Giants: Not sure what the linesmakers were thinking here. Washington is much improved, and the Giants are on the verge of a team-wide implosion. I will happily lay the wood here.

Tennessee +4 at New Orleans: This one could go very wrong. A desperate Saints team, in their home opener, on Monday night; there is a chance they could blow the Titans right out of the water. They better do just that, because if they leave the game in doubt and the ball in Vince Young's hands, they will lose.

Sunday, September 16, 2007


NFL Week Two Picks

We kicked off the season 4-1. After a perfect 4-0 Sunday, I got greedy and added a pick for Monday, which is a donkey move. Still, 80% is getting it done by anybody's standards. Let's see if I can avoid regressing to the mean.

Regular readers and degenerate gamblers will remember that underdogs at home are some of the best bets you can make. This week, I'm picking against a bunch of them. Livin' on the edge, baby!

Dallas -3.5 at Miami: The Cowboy's defense does appear to have some holes, but I don't think the Dolphins' offense is equipped to take advantage of it. The once-dominant Miami defense is starting to show its age.

Minnesota +3 at Detroit: I love the potential of Detroit's offense, but don't lead me to the Kool-Aid just yet. I still think tough defenses like the Vikes will slow them down ( and turn them over) enough. Also, Minny will use RB Adrian (All Day) Peterson to play keep-away.

Indianapolis -7 at Tennessee: Wait a minute. Didn't I say I would take Vince Young and a touchdown versus anybody just last week? Well, it's the blogosphere...sue me. The Colts were a cover machine last year, except for the two games against the Titans. They lost outright in Nashville, and you better damn well believe Peyton Manning didn't forget.

New Orleans -3.5 at Tampa Bay: The Saints bounce back huge from their opening-night loss. I really don't have more of an angle than that.

Green Bay +2.5 at New York Giants: Given the QB uncertainty of the Giants, and the utter QB certainty of the Packers, I think the wrong team may be favored here. I also want the over 38.5 total.

Monday, September 10, 2007


Week One Bonus Pick

I had a great Sunday, going 4-0. So I'm probably going to regret this, but...

Arizona at San Francisco over 45 points: The old saw is that defenses are ahead of offenses early in the season. I think these team's offenses will be ahead of their defenses all season. Take the over, even though 45 is the highest number on the board this week.

Saturday, September 08, 2007


2007 NFL Week 1 Picks

Well, the time has come to crank up my quixotic attempt to beat the house at NFL betting. I finished the last regular season barely above water, and promptly crashed and burned in the playoffs. As always, you are a complete fool if you bet actual, hard-earned money on my recommendations. I have four picks for Sunday; if they do well, I MAY add more for the Monday doubleheader.

Houston -3 vs Kansas City: The Texans have a new quarterback and new weapons at his disposal. The Chiefs are one Larry Johnson injury away from being the worst team in the league. After setting a record for carries last season and sitting out of training camp in a contract dispute, I wouldn't place too much faith in LJ, this week or long-term.

Tennessee +7 at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are the better team, and playing at home. But seven points is too much to be laying in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. I would be tempted to take Vince Young and seven against anybody.

Detroit +2.5 at Oakland: I don't think the Raiders are as bad as they were last year. Hell, I don't think Baghdad is as bad as the Raiders were last year. Instead, this pick is about Lions Head Coach/Mad Scientist Mike Martz. I have an uneasy feeling that he now has all the pieces he needs for world offensive domination. They're not going to win the Super Bowl--their defense stinks on ice. But they are going to outscore some people, starting with the Raiders.

Pittsburgh -4.5 at Cleveland: The Browns are another team that is starting to turn the corner, but they won't be a serious threat until Coach Romeo Crennel realizes Brady Quinn is his best quarterback, and plays him.

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