Friday, October 30, 2009


NFL Week Eight Picks

A putrid 1-3-1 week lowers my season record to 17-17. No time this week, as I am on my way to Vegas to bet real money on games. I can't guarantee it will be these games, but these will count for the blog.

Denver at Baltimore under 42 points

Carolina +10.5 at Arizona

Jacksonville +3 at Tennessee

San Francisco +13.5 at Indianapolis

Philadelphia +1.5 vs. New York Giants

Sunday, October 25, 2009


NFL Week Seven Picks

Last week's performance of 3-1-1 brings my season record to 16-14. There is no point to tracking ties, as you get your money back and it's like it never happened. On to the picks....

Cleveland +9.5 vs Green Bay: The Packers are much better, but could be looking ahead to the massive rematch with the Vikings next week. The Browns will go all out to avoid embarrassment in front of their home fans.

Minnesota +6 at Pittsburgh: The Vikes can't afford to look ahead, or they will get the stuffing beaten out them by the Steelers. They will probably lose, but keep it close.

Atlanta +5 at Dallas: The Cowboys need it more...but the Falcons are a better team, getting points. I have to roll with that.

San Francisco +3.5 at Houston: See above. The Niners are rarely an artistic success, but have started to take on the personality of Head Coach Mike Singletary. By the way, that's a good thing.

Cincinnati +1 vs. Chicago: I am not really sold on the Bengals, but this line moved in such a way that I must react. Cincy opened as a 1.5 point favorite, but has swung to an underdog at home.

Sunday, October 18, 2009


NFL Week Six Picks

Things are not going well. A second consecutive 2-3 week has me at 13-13 for the season, which is not good enough. I am redoubling my effort with this week's selections.

Kansas City +6.5 at Washington: The Redskins should not be laying this many points against the Kevzilla Home for Wayward Girls. Although the Chiefs are not world-beaters, they have some pieces, and their coach is NOT on death-watch. I wouldn't want to watch this game, but I don't mind making some money from it.

Jacksonville at St. Louis under 43 points: Also unwatchable, but I don't want any part of the spread. I just don't think these teams can manage 20 points each.

Tennessee at New England over 39 points: The Patriots may well cover the large spread, but I am more comfortable with the over. Both of these teams have struggled at pass defense.

New York Jets -9.5 vs. Buffalo: The Jets' defense (and their defense-minded coach) were embarrassed on national television lat week. Fortunately, the Bills will cure whatever is wrong with your defense.

Denver +3.5 at San Diego: Boy, this feels like I'm walking into a trap. The undefeated Broncos are getting points against a team labeled "soft and uninspired" their own general manager. Something is terribly wrong here. I guess the general sentiment is that the Chargers are more desperate. I understand that, but desperation will have to become on-field production before I lay a cent on the Bolts.

Sunday, October 11, 2009


NFL Week Five Picks

My 2-3 performance last week makes my season record 11-10, which is dead even for a degenerate gambler. I have not gotten a fast start, and my chances of having a good season have dimmed considerably. Win or lose, I will keep plugging away.

Cincinnati at Baltimore over 41.5 points: These teams have had track meet-type games in the past. I think that will continue today, although the Bengals' defense has improved and no one really expects it.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia over 41 points: I don't think the Bucs will have to contribute very much to this total, as the Eagles (welcoming back their QB) might make it on their own.

Minnesota -10 at St. Louis: I am violating all my own rules here. The Rams are huge home underdogs, and I usually pile on those. This is also a 'sandwich game' for the Vikings, coming after the big matchup with the Packers and before a meeting with Baltimore. Third, the Vikes played on Monday night and are on the road the next Sunday. So why would I do this? Because those rules apply to professional teams, and I'm not sure the Rams qualify.

Houston +6.5 at Arizona: There is little reason to think the Texans will win this game. But their offense can gain yards and score points in big chunks, and I think they get a late cover.

Jacksonville +1.5 at Seattle: I think the Jags are actually the better team here, and if they can overcome the Seahawks' large home-field advantage by running the ball, I believe they will win this game outright.

Sunday, October 04, 2009


NFL Week Four Picks

My 3-2 performance last week raises my season record to a respectable 9-7. We forge ahead as usual, seeking plays opposite of the week's line movement.

Jacksonville +3 vs. Tennessee: No matter where I look, I see someone saying the Titans can't possibly go 0-4. When everyone is on one side, you need to be on the other. I'll take the home underdog in a low-scoring game.

Cleveland +7 vs. Cincinnati: The Browns are very bad, indeed. The problem is that the Bengals shouldn't be favored by a touchdown on the road against DeVry, much less an NFL team. Cincy wins, but not by much.

Detroit at Chicago under 41 points: and,

Baltimore at New England under 45 points: and,

San Diego at Pittsburgh under 43 points: on all three of these games, the line has moved up considerably during the week, and I am going against the grain.

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